Monetary Policy

Seven major central banks will announce interest rate decisions next week, prompting the market to reassess global inflation and rate cut expectations. The Middle East conflict has led to rising oil prices, which could impact Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin price drops below $70,000 again due to geopolitical risks and market caution. Trump's warning to Iran has increased market uncertainty, and high oil prices are affecting investor confidence, despite institutional continued buying of Bitcoin. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors paying attention to U.S. CPI data and the progress of the CLARITY Act.

Bitcoin recently broke through $70,000 again, influenced by changes in the energy market. Its price once reached $71,612 before falling back to $70,036. The market sentiment is related to discussions with the International Energy Agency about releasing strategic oil reserves, and the decline in Brent crude oil prices is seen as a signal to reduce inflation pressure. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with expectations that if oil prices remain below $90, it will create room for interest rate cuts.

According to analysis, the U.S. Congress may push for a permanent ban on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). Senator Cruz has introduced an amendment to turn the temporary ban into a permanent one. This move reduces concerns about the Federal Reserve issuing digital dollars and benefits the stablecoin market. However, the ban could become an obstacle to advancing the CLARITY Act, lowering its priority.

Arthur Hayes stated in a podcast that while he is bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, he won't buy until the Federal Reserve eases policy. He is concerned that the Middle East situation could lead to a large-scale sell-off and emphasized that he would only consider buying when liquidity is released.

The Fed Chair candidate nominated by U.S. President Trump, Kevin Warsh, faced resistance from Republican Senator Thom Tillis in Congress as he sought support, because he demanded that no personnel nominations be advanced until the investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell is concluded. Tillis emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve and expressed concerns about market impact. Warsh faces uncertainty regarding confirmation.

The Trump administration's "Middle-Class Tax Relief" policy showed results in the 2026 tax season, processing over 63.5 million tax returns with an average refund of over $3,700, but it did not cover cryptocurrency taxation rules. Cryptocurrency investors still need to report capital gains taxes according to current tax laws. The newly launched "Trump Account" program also offers government funding, but the complex tax reporting situation for cryptocurrencies remains.

Cruz proposal to remove the sunset clause on the CBDC ban, aiming to permanently prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital dollars, intensifies the congressional debate over digital currency. Senator introduces amendment advocating for a permanent ban on the United States issuing CBDC ----------------------- The U.S. Congress's debate over Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) policies has heated up again. According to reports

A survey by the American Bankers Association shows that most consumers support restricting stablecoin yields to prevent potential risks to the banking system. About two-thirds of respondents believe that stablecoin yields could weaken banks' ability to use funds for community lending, calling on Congress to adopt cautious legislative measures. This issue has become a focal point of debate between the banking industry and the crypto sector in current cryptocurrency legislation discussions.

Gate News Report, March 10 — According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.6%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut in April is 13.9%, with an 86.1% chance of no change, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 0.1%. The probability of a 25 basis point cut by June is 37.5%.

Bitcoin remains stable amid market turmoil fueled by rising oil prices and inflation, outperforming traditional assets. Its reduced leverage limits forced selling, attracting long-term investors eyeing potential gains in a volatile landscape.

Gate News Report, March 10 — CME "Federal Reserve Watch" latest data shows that the market's expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 2.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level remains at 97.3%.

A report from Bank of America指出, rising oil prices have been viewed as an inflation threat, but supply shocks pose a dual risk to the Federal Reserve's mission. Compared to 2022, current economic demand has slowed, and if oil price shocks persist, they could prompt the Fed to adopt an accommodative monetary policy.

Bitcoin's price hovers near $71,000 despite a 3% increase, as geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's rate policy create market uncertainty. Oil prices have declined from recent peaks, and crypto markets face liquidation pressures amid mixed investor sentiment.

U.S. President Trump hints that the war with Iran is nearing its end, sparking a rebound in global financial markets. Cryptocurrencies are rallying strongly, with Bitcoin surpassing $70,000 and Ethereum breaking through $2,000. Institutional investor demand is increasing, supporting capital inflows, and market sentiment is gradually improving. However, it still takes time to restore confidence. The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate meeting will become a focal point for the market.

Gate News Report, on March 10th, February's non-farm payroll data showed weaker-than-expected employment performance, forming a stark contrast to the market's general expectation of resilience. However, the market's rate cut expectations have not significantly adjusted as a result. The interest rate market data indicates that the next rate cut is still highly likely to occur in the second half of the year. This week, both CPI and PCE data will be released successively. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's decision next week, whether inflation data can signal a cooling trend and resonate with employment figures will be the market's focus. Analysts believe that the rebound in energy prices may hinder inflation cooling, making it difficult for the data to shake the Fed's wait-and-see stance.

Comtus Holdings proposed a standardized framework for won-backed stablecoins in South Korea to enhance adoption and regulatory compliance. This initiative aligns with the ongoing discussions of the Digital Asset Basic Act, aiming to bolster domestic currency demand while ensuring user protection and financial stability.

Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi faces scrutiny over alleged pressure on the central bank regarding monetary policy, coinciding with her pro-crypto stance. Her policies have aimed to support the crypto industry amid ongoing geopolitical tensions impacting market behavior.

Chairman Michael Selig of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a new regulatory approach to position the U.S. as a global crypto hub. The "Project Crypto Initiative" aims to enhance coordination with the SEC and clarify crypto asset classification while ensuring transparency in digital markets.