Macroeconomics

The International Monetary Fund recommends that the Bank of Japan continue raising interest rates, despite new risks to Japan’s economy stemming from the Middle East war. Rising oil prices and yen depreciation have intensified inflation pressures. The IMF expects inflation to return to the 2% target in 2027 and emphasizes the importance of a flexible interest-rate policy.

The Trump administration submitted a $1.5 trillion defense spending request to Congress on April 3 --- the largest military budget proposal in U.S. history --- pairing record military outlays with cuts to domestic programs in a fiscal combination that signals sustained inflation pressure and a

Despite a strong rebound in U.S. March employment data, EY-Parthenon economist Lydia Boussour says the labor market remains fragile, with companies’ hiring intentions declining, and expects the market to be frozen in 2026. The unemployment rate could rise to 4.7%, and the probability of an economic recession is 40%.

CPI Macro analyst Stephen Brown discusses the March nonfarm payrolls employment report, pointing out that a strike in the healthcare industry has ended and that weather factors have hindered hiring, helping to drive an employment rebound. However, rising oil prices may affect near-term demand; falling consumer purchasing power will curb hiring. Employment is declining in areas such as information and financial services, and artificial intelligence is also suppressing hiring in some industries.

Gate News updates, April 3. The Trump administration’s budget proposal is expected to have the U.S. real GDP grow by 3.1% in fiscal year 2027.

S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis shows that the U.S. economy is facing upward price pressures and uncertainty, with the services sector contracting for the first time since January 2023. In March, economic growth slowed to just 0.5%. Consumer-facing service industries have been hit hard, with rising costs and a decline in purchasing power leading to a drop in spending; in the future, consumer price inflation could accelerate to nearly 4%.

At EthCC 2026, Offchain Labs’ Edward Felten said that Ethereum L2 networks need to introduce a “responsive pricing” mechanism to reduce fee volatility and support hundreds of millions of users. Even though EIP-1559 has improved fee mechanics, Gas price volatility still affects user acceptance. Today, the industry focus has shifted to how to make costs more predictable—Arbitrum One has already been the first to put a dynamic pricing mechanism into practice.

Gate News update, April 3, Carson Group’s Chief Macroeconomic Strategist Sonu Varghese said that the latest labor data show that the economy’s new job growth is sufficient to keep pace with population growth. He noted that this will put the Federal Reserve in a more complicated position, making rate cuts pointless—especially given the size of the inflation shock that’s coming. He added that the inflation problem already existed before the Middle East crisis that sent energy prices soaring, and in the end, it appears that the rate cuts implemented last year were a mistake.

Gate News message, on April 3, after the Non-Farm Payrolls data was released, the U.S. Dollar Index DXY (a measure of the dollar’s strength versus a basket of currencies) surged sharply in the short term, topping out at 100.1. Non-U.S. currencies generally fell; EUR/USD and GBP/USD both dropped nearly 30 points in the short term.

The U.S. job market saw significant improvement in March, adding 178,000 jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This rebound follows February's losses, with potential implications for future interest rate hikes amid ongoing oil price concerns.

Gate News update: On April 3, the U.S. reported that March’s unemployment rate was 4.3%, below market expectations of 4.4%, down slightly from last month’s 4.4%.

Gate News message, April 3—affected by the Middle East conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has recently suffered severe disruptions, and global shipping costs have surged sharply. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels are rising rapidly, and industry insiders say freight rates have currently increased by 11 to 12 times. Insurance costs and detour costs are being passed on layer by layer, continuously impacting global trade and supply-chain security.

The U.S. March unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll employment figures will be released on April 3 at 20:30. Forecasts from various institutions differ: expectations for nonfarm payrolls range from -25k to 80k, reflecting different views in the market on the state of the economy.

In 2026, the private credit market faces liquidity pressure. Investor redemption demand is high, but actual settlement falls short of half, and multiple institutions have initiated redemption restrictions. Market tension and sentiment worsen, default rates hit a record high, and problems with asset structure are pronounced. Blockchain attempts have failed to improve liquidity, and macro pressures have struck borrowers. Overall, private credit could become a source of systemic risk.

In 2026, the asset composition of U.S. residents saw a significant shift. The proportion of stock market–linked assets rose to a record high, and household wealth became increasingly dependent on the capital markets. However, as the market environment changed, major stock indexes generally weakened, geopolitical tensions intensified market volatility, and consumer spending may be affected, thereby weighing on economic growth. Future trends will require monitoring the market’s ability to absorb adjustments and the impact of external shocks.

In 2026, the U.S. job market faces serious challenges: government job openings and the hiring rate have fallen significantly, layoffs in the private sector continue, and leading indicators suggest a bleak employment outlook. The market is focused on the upcoming jobs report to gauge the direction of the economy.

In 2026, tensions in the Middle East led Americans to face an economic burden, with the cost of military operations ranging from $30 billion to $45 billion, increasing spending by about $2.5 to $3.8 per person per day. Oil prices rose due to the conflict, driving up household fuel and living costs, intensifying inflation pressure, and affecting interest rates and financial markets, which could trigger greater risks.

In March 2026, gold prices saw a sharp 12% pullback, prompting the market to reassess its structural risks. Goldman Sachs analysts said that trading was driven by margin imbalances and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, leading traders to close positions and sell off gold. Despite increased short-term volatility, institutions remain optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook, forecasting that the price could reach $5,400 by year-end. Future trends will be influenced by the strength of the U.S. dollar and the state of the global economy.

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, said in a CNBC interview this week that his firm purchased approximately $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest auction. Is a stock market crash coming and what does it mean for Bitcoin (BTC)? Key takeaways: Berk

U.S. government job openings fell to 701,000 in February, the second-lowest level since December 2020. Layoffs at private companies are intensifying, consumer confidence is weakening, and it reflects an underperforming labor market that could foreshadow a rise in the unemployment rate.