Prediction Market

Gate News message, April 8, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, four suspected insider-trading addresses profited by about $663k by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April 7. Most of these wallets were created on April 7 and funded after that; a few hours before the ceasefire news was released, they bought the “YES” option. Previously, there was no activity record—only a bet on this event—entered at extremely low odds (3.9%).

Gate News update: On April 8, according to the ADI Predictstreet official website, the prediction market platform ADI Predictstreet will go live officially on April 9. Previously, the platform had reached a multi-year cooperation agreement with FIFA, becoming the official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently rebounded to $71,520, but due to a Resolv USD private key leak, some vault liquidity is insufficient, and Trading Protocol warns users to deposit with caution. Fox and Kalshi have partnered to integrate prediction market data into news programs, demonstrating the importance of data in media. The market is reacting sharply to developments in the Middle East; investors are waiting for Trump’s decisions, which is affecting overall market sentiment.

Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized prediction market platform that permits users to trade shares using USDC stablecoin, is pleased to announce the launch of a stablecoin and an order book upgrade. For this purpose, it is integrated with DO Network, a high-performance, decentralized

Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz’s traffic volume returning to normal by April 30 has risen to 57%. Current trading volume is about $4.07 million. The event will be determined based on IMF PortWatch data, and Iran’s foreign minister said the strait can be safely navigated in the next two weeks.

Polymarket has seen a significant revenue surge, generating $7.1 million in fees in just one week, placing it as a top player in decentralized finance. Recent partnerships and upgrades signal strong growth, though regulatory challenges persist.

Gate News message, on April 7, the U.S. news network Fox News officially integrated the Kalshi platform, using prediction market mechanisms to add accountability to news reporting while encouraging content to be closer to the facts. As one of the three major mainstream U.S. news networks, Fox News hopes to use prediction markets to eliminate bias, strengthen accuracy, and ensure that news reporting is not influenced by political stances, with correctness as the guiding principle.

The U.S. Federal Court of Appeals ruled that the state of New Jersey lacks the authority to bar Kalshi, a sports-betting prediction market platform regulated by the CFTC, from launching sports event contracts, finding that federal law takes precedence over state law. Although Kalshi prevailed, experts say this is only a temporary victory, and the Supreme Court will ultimately need to decide the jurisdiction issue.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran by May 15 has fallen to 37%. The total trading volume of this event contract exceeds $107 million. U.S. Vice President Vance reiterated the final deadline for Iran, while Trump threatened that there will be strikes if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Gate News message, April 7, Kalshi’s latest data shows that the market is betting on a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold steady in April this year, and a 2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. As of now, trading volume in this prediction market has exceeded $10 million.

Gate News message, April 7, according to Polymarket’s latest data, the probabilities that the market is betting on for StandX to have FDV over $200 million on the next day after launch are 35%, over $400 million are 14%, and over $800 million are 11%. Currently, the total trading volume of this prediction market is over $1.29 million.

The expected shift around Iran ceasefire talks is toward pessimism, and the trading market shows that the ceasefire success rate set by Trump is only 3%. Iran rejected a short-term ceasefire proposal and put forward long-term political and economic conditions, further compressing the room for negotiations. Energy markets are strengthening in expectation, and the probability that WTI crude for April, which hit $120, rises to 77%. Crypto assets such as Bitcoin are under pressure during the phase when risk appetite declines, with capital flowing into traditional safe-haven assets.

American prediction market platform Kalshi made progress in its legal dispute with the state of New Jersey, as a court ruled that its contracts fall under federal regulation and are not gambling. The decision emphasized that the product meets the definition of a “swap transaction,” protecting Kalshi’s operations within the state. This case marks the first time a federal court has considered the legality of a prediction market, and increased attention will be paid to a unified regulatory framework going forward.

Polymarket reports that on April 7, in the match between MIBR and EYEBALLERS, an account bought roughly a $180k MIBR win position, which is currently slightly down. This event is a key matchup for PGL Bucharest 2026 and will affect qualification status.

On April 7, on the Predict platform, the FDV prediction market regarding Polymarket’s token launch day saw a sharp drop, with a 13% probability that FDV would be greater than $2 billion. Polymarket announced an upgrade to its trading engine and the launch of the stablecoin Polymarket USD, sparking controversy in the market over whether this would be considered a token issuance, which caused the probabilities for related events to fluctuate.

Bitcoin BTC$68,767.57 slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower. The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once