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Polymarket: Iran ceasefire probability is only 3%, and the surge in oil prices is hitting Bitcoin’s price trend

The expected shift around Iran ceasefire talks is toward pessimism, and the trading market shows that the ceasefire success rate set by Trump is only 3%. Iran rejected a short-term ceasefire proposal and put forward long-term political and economic conditions, further compressing the room for negotiations. Energy markets are strengthening in expectation, and the probability that WTI crude for April, which hit $120, rises to 77%. Crypto assets such as Bitcoin are under pressure during the phase when risk appetite declines, with capital flowing into traditional safe-haven assets.

Kalshi Wins in New Jersey: Prediction Markets Get Federal Endorsement, Key Ruling in the Regulatory Authority Battle

American prediction market platform Kalshi made progress in its legal dispute with the state of New Jersey, as a court ruled that its contracts fall under federal regulation and are not gambling. The decision emphasized that the product meets the definition of a “swap transaction,” protecting Kalshi’s operations within the state. This case marks the first time a federal court has considered the legality of a prediction market, and increased attention will be paid to a unified regulatory framework going forward.

A certain account bought $180k CS2 event MIBR win positions on Polymarket.

Polymarket reports that on April 7, in the match between MIBR and EYEBALLERS, an account bought roughly a $180k MIBR win position, which is currently slightly down. This event is a key matchup for PGL Bucharest 2026 and will affect qualification status.

Predicts On Polymarket, the FDV forecasts for the token launch on day one plunged across the board, and the settlement rules sparked controversy

On April 7, on the Predict platform, the FDV prediction market regarding Polymarket’s token launch day saw a sharp drop, with a 13% probability that FDV would be greater than $2 billion. Polymarket announced an upgrade to its trading engine and the launch of the stablecoin Polymarket USD, sparking controversy in the market over whether this would be considered a token issuance, which caused the probabilities for related events to fluctuate.

Bitcoin drops toward $68,000 as demand weakens and whales sell

Bitcoin BTC$68,767.57 slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower. The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once

Two major high-win-rate accounts bet on the U.S. seizing Iran’s “enriched uranium,” with the highest win rate reaching 81%

Recently, on prediction market platform Polymarket, two accounts collectively staked $5,900, betting that the odds of the “United States obtaining Iran’s highly enriched uranium before June” are 81%. These two accounts have strong historical performance in Iran-related categories and chose to enter when the valuation was undervalued. According to reports, the U.S. military has proposed a plan to deploy ground forces to seize highly enriched uranium, but it faces legal constraints.