Polymarket 美国平台名义交易量突破 7.5 亿美元，交易笔数超 500 万笔

Ruling sports betting contracts are derivatives! The U.S. CFTC blocks local law enforcement, pushing to secure regulatory authority over prediction markets

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona’s criminal lawsuit against Kalshi, strengthening the outlook for federal oversight of prediction markets

A U.S. federal judge, Michael Liburdi, temporarily blocked the state of Arizona from proceeding with criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi. The state has brought 20 counts of illegal gambling against Kalshi. The CFTC argues that federal oversight takes priority and that prediction markets fall under its regulation; if ultimately established, it would benefit the legal environment for the entire industry. The case still requires further proceedings.

Sports betting contract is a derivative product! The U.S. CFTC blocks local law enforcement while pushing for regulatory authority over prediction markets

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court backs this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

Polymarket data: The probability that Bitcoin will break $75,000 in April is 77%

Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $75,000 in April is 77%, and the probability of breaking above $80,000 is 24%; the probability of dropping to below $65,000 is 30%. Deribit data shows that the max pain（maximum pain）price for Bitcoin options expiring on April 24 is $70,000, with a notional amount of approximately $6.98 billion.

“Sports Betting Contract” is a derivative! The U.S. CFTC blocks local law enforcement to fight for regulatory control of prediction markets

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.