On March 2, news broke that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in an airstrike incident, and prediction markets related to his death are facing strong criticism from U.S. political circles. Some U.S. senators are calling on regulators to restrict prediction market contracts settled on personal death, quickly bringing crypto prediction platforms and related financial products into the spotlight.
Data shows that on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, contracts related to the timing of the Iran airstrike have traded over $529 million. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform Kalshi, trading volume for contracts on whether Khamenei will remain as the Supreme Leader has exceeded $50 million, with about $20 million traded just on Saturday alone. Following confirmation of the airstrike, these contracts rapidly moved toward settlement.
According to documents submitted by Kalshi to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all positions are settled based on the last transaction price before Khamenei’s death. The platform then paused trading and closed the contracts. However, there are discrepancies between the settlement rules described on the market page and the official documents, raising user concerns. The market remained active for hours between the airstrike and the death confirmation, becoming a point of controversy.
Kalshi later issued a statement acknowledging ambiguities in some rules and announced that all market fees would be refunded. Additionally, any positions opened after Khamenei’s death will be fully refunded.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found that six newly created accounts profited about $1 million by accurately predicting the timing of the Iran attack on February 28. These accounts almost exclusively bet on the attack date, with some trades completed hours before the airstrike began. Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that war and conflict-related events often attract informed traders to bet early, and anonymous trading environments may amplify this risk.
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff, along with several Democratic colleagues, has jointly written to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, demanding that regulators ban prediction market contracts related to personal death and requiring a response by March 9. Industry organization Coalition for Prediction Markets also publicly stated that contracts involving death events should not appear in U.S. markets.
Analysts believe that as the intersection of war, politics, and crypto prediction markets continues to expand, regulators may strengthen oversight of these platforms in the future. The legality and ethical boundaries of prediction market contracts are expected to become new issues in financial regulation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Kalshi Wins in New Jersey: Prediction Markets Get Federal Endorsement, Key Ruling in the Regulatory Authority Battle
American prediction market platform Kalshi made progress in its legal dispute with the state of New Jersey, as a court ruled that its contracts fall under federal regulation and are not gambling. The decision emphasized that the product meets the definition of a “swap transaction,” protecting Kalshi’s operations within the state. This case marks the first time a federal court has considered the legality of a prediction market, and increased attention will be paid to a unified regulatory framework going forward.
GateNews1h ago
A certain account bought $180k CS2 event MIBR win positions on Polymarket.
Polymarket reports that on April 7, in the match between MIBR and EYEBALLERS, an account bought roughly a $180k MIBR win position, which is currently slightly down. This event is a key matchup for PGL Bucharest 2026 and will affect qualification status.
GateNews1h ago
Predicts On Polymarket, the FDV forecasts for the token launch on day one plunged across the board, and the settlement rules sparked controversy
On April 7, on the Predict platform, the FDV prediction market regarding Polymarket’s token launch day saw a sharp drop, with a 13% probability that FDV would be greater than $2 billion. Polymarket announced an upgrade to its trading engine and the launch of the stablecoin Polymarket USD, sparking controversy in the market over whether this would be considered a token issuance, which caused the probabilities for related events to fluctuate.
GateNews2h ago
Bitcoin drops toward $68,000 as demand weakens and whales sell
Bitcoin BTC$68,767.57 slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower.
The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once
CoinDesk3h ago
Two major high-win-rate accounts bet on the U.S. seizing Iran’s “enriched uranium,” with the highest win rate reaching 81%
Recently, on prediction market platform Polymarket, two accounts collectively staked $5,900, betting that the odds of the “United States obtaining Iran’s highly enriched uranium before June” are 81%. These two accounts have strong historical performance in Iran-related categories and chose to enter when the valuation was undervalued. According to reports, the U.S. military has proposed a plan to deploy ground forces to seize highly enriched uranium, but it faces legal constraints.
MarketWhisper3h ago
Research: 84% of traders on Polymarket are currently losing money
Research by independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov shows that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket lose money, only 2% have profits over $1,000, and 0.033% reach $100k in profits. Of the 6,600 traders with monthly profits over $5,000, only 2.6% remain consistently active for more than a year. Most traders leave after trading for a while.
GateNews4h ago
