The Federal Reserve has a 96% chance of maintaining interest rates in March, with only a 4% chance of a rate cut.

U.S.-Iran Conflict and a Clash Over Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: Five Key Takeaways From the March Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes will be released tonight, as tensions in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalate and the direction of interest rates becomes uncertain. This article will explain the key focus of the minutes, the conditions for rate hikes, and the impact on the crypto market.

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9.

Gate News message: On April 8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9. Against the backdrop of intensifying conflict in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, this document will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as the framework they use to judge the balance of risks.

Bitcoin spikes to $72k but then shows a “fake bull”? With the ceasefire agreement layered on top and options expiring, undercurrents are roiling in the market

After the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $72,000, indicating how sensitive the market is to macro events. However, derivatives market data shows that this rally was mainly driven by easing hedging sentiment rather than new inflows, and that implied volatility in the options market has fallen, suggesting that near-term risks are being released. The next few days will be critical: a large amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expected to expire, which could influence the direction of the market.

After the Iran-Iraq ceasefire, gold and silver prices rose; improving market sentiment and weaker expectations of interest-rate hikes were the main drivers.

Gate News update, April 8, according to analysis by the finance website Investinglive, after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, gold and silver prices rose. The analysis said that before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold and silver positions relied mainly on leveraged trading; the negative impact brought by the conflict led to leveraged selling, causing gold and silver prices to fall. After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, improved market sentiment drove a rebound in gold and silver. In addition, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire also means that major central banks may not need to be overly aggressive in raising interest rates, which is one of the reasons for the rebound in precious metals.

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike drops sharply to 0.5%, easing Bitcoin’s pressure

Based on data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting is 99.5%, effectively eliminating the risk of further rate hikes. This expectation is driven by multiple macro factors, including slowing inflation and stable economic growth. For high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, keeping rates unchanged helps improve market sentiment, making investors’ expectations of rate cuts the next focus.

BTC drops 1.03% in 15 minutes: tighter macro liquidity and derivatives synchronized to amplify sell-off pressure

From 23:30 to 23:45 (UTC) on 2026-04-07, the BTC price rapidly fell within 15 minutes, with a return of -1.03%. The price range was 71,905.7 to 72,760.5 USDT, and the amplitude was 1.17%. Market attention remained high; intraday volatility significantly increased. Trading volumes across major platforms briefly surged, indicating that selling pressure and risk-avoidance sentiment had permeated mainstream cryptocurrencies. The main drivers of this deviation were the continued tightening of macro liquidity under the Fed’s hawkish signals and a concentrated adjustment in the BTC derivatives market. The Fed’s interest rate in March 2026