PANews reported on February 22 that investor and Coin Metrics founder Nic Carter wrote about the current state of prediction markets, believing that although they may become a cultural phenomenon by 2025/26, there is still a significant gap compared to the potential envisioned by early supporters. He pointed out two major structural issues with prediction markets:
First, market fragmentation and the lack of natural buyers and sellers make it difficult for them to serve as effective hedging tools (the more favorable the market is to hedgers, the worse its liquidity becomes. For “corporate hedging” to function effectively, a large number of speculative noise traders need to short sell to effectively “subsidize” these short positions).
Second, part of the value of prediction markets lies in revealing insider information, but such activities are often illegal and may ultimately lead traders to lose confidence in the market.
Additionally, he mentioned that currently, prediction markets mainly rely on sports betting for survival. However, in non-sports sectors, insider trading scandals could trigger doubts about market fairness, ultimately leading to user attrition. Although prediction markets have social value, Carter believes that realizing the vision of early advocates still faces significant challenges, and in the future, they may focus more on sports and cultural markets.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
U.S. House pressures the CFTC, demanding answers to six questions about insider trading in prediction markets
Seven members of the U.S. House of Representatives sent a letter to the CFTC Chair, questioning the regulator’s lack of enforcement regarding insider trading in prediction markets related to Iran and Venezuela, and requesting answers to six questions from the CFTC. The incident has sparked concerns about the legitimacy of prediction markets and the strength of regulatory oversight, and the CFTC has pledged to pursue selective enforcement. As the market expands, in the absence of clear regulations, investors need to pay attention to possible policy changes and their impacts.
GateNews2h ago
Polymarket bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and makes a staggering 3,500% profit—are insider trading allegations heating up?
As U.S.-Iran tensions ease, asset prices rebound. Some traders have predicted the market with pinpoint accuracy to profit from ceasefire gains, sparking discussion about insider trading. Although there is no evidence yet, frequent cases have challenged market fairness, and regulators have begun to pay attention. Polymarket has also updated its rules to strengthen market integrity. The industry faces a key question of balancing openness with compliance.
GateNews3h ago
3 Polymarket traders made a timely bet on a US-Iran ceasefire
Three newly created wallets profited a combined $484,575 on Polymarket betting that the US and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by Tuesday, in the latest event to raise suspicion of insider trading.
The wallets were created and funded on Tuesday and had no prior activity before betting on Polymarket
Cointelegraph5h ago
Four suspected insider addresses bet on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and profited about $663k
Gate News message, April 8, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, four suspected insider-trading addresses profited by about $663k by betting on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before April 7. Most of these wallets were created on April 7 and funded after that; a few hours before the ceasefire news was released, they bought the “YES” option. Previously, there was no activity record—only a bet on this event—entered at extremely low odds (3.9%).
GateNews8h ago
The market predictor ADI Predictstreet will launch on April 9, and has become the official World Cup 2026 partner.
Gate News update: On April 8, according to the ADI Predictstreet official website, the prediction market platform ADI Predictstreet will go live officially on April 9. Previously, the platform had reached a multi-year cooperation agreement with FIFA, becoming the official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup.
GateNews9h ago
Gate Daily Report (April 8): Resolv leak impacts treasury liquidity; Fox and Kalshi reach a data partnership
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently rebounded to $71,520, but due to a Resolv USD private key leak, some vault liquidity is insufficient, and Trading Protocol warns users to deposit with caution. Fox and Kalshi have partnered to integrate prediction market data into news programs, demonstrating the importance of data in media. The market is reacting sharply to developments in the Middle East; investors are waiting for Trump’s decisions, which is affecting overall market sentiment.
MarketWhisper10h ago
