BlockBeats News, February 20 — According to The Wall Street Journal, sources familiar with the matter reveal that Trump is weighing a preliminary, limited military strike against Iran to pressure it into agreeing to a nuclear deal. This strike plan, if authorized, could be implemented within days and would target a few military or government facilities. If Iran continues to refuse Trump’s demand to cease uranium enrichment activities, the United States will launch a large-scale attack on the regime’s facilities — potentially aiming to overthrow the Tehran government.
After weeks of deliberation, it remains unclear how seriously Trump is considering this plan, though senior aides have repeatedly presented it to him. U.S. officials say recent discussions have focused more on larger-scale strikes, but Trump has not yet decided to order any attack. Some U.S. officials and analysts warn that such strikes could provoke Iranian retaliation, potentially dragging the U.S. into a broader Middle East war and endangering regional allies.
Additionally, market sources indicate that Iran, in a letter to the UN Secretary-General and Security Council members, stated, “If attacked, all bases, facilities, and assets of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets within Iran’s defensive response framework.” Trump’s remarks suggest “a real risk of military aggression.” Iran does not seek escalation or war and would not initiate conflict first.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 26%, the probability before March 15 to 52%, and the probability before the end of March to 60%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Polymarket reveals a 'full exchange upgrade' to take control of its own trading and truth
Polymarket plans to launch a new USDC-backed collateral token, Polymarket USD, as part of a comprehensive platform upgrade. This move aims to enhance control over settlement and liquidity. The potential introduction of a POLY token for governance could further refine market integrity, following controversies in its current governance system.
CoinDesk52m ago
Polymarket will roll out its V2 trading engine and its native stablecoin, Polymarket USD, within the next 2–3 weeks.
Polymarket announcement: a major upgrade is planned in the next 2–3 weeks, including rebuilding the trading engine, introducing Polymarket USD, optimizing order-matching efficiency, and more. This upgrade is the largest scale since the platform launched, and it will improve trading efficiency while reducing users’ concerns about non-official assets.
GateNews1h ago
Appeals court blocks New Jersey from shutting down Kalshi's sports markets
An appeals court ruled Monday that New Jersey could not temporarily ban prediction market provider Kalshi, giving the platform a much-needed win against an onslaught of state enforcement actions.
A Third Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled in a 2-1 vote that the state could not bring an enforcemen
CoinDesk1h ago
Forecast market activity: March transaction count year-over-year grew 2,838%, and it’s a geopolitical risk monitoring tool that is correlated with BTC price movements
Sygnum Bank’s chief investment officer said the market is increasingly important in monitoring macro risks, especially during heightened conflict in Iran. Data show that the number of prediction market trades in March rose 2,838% year over year, and the professional trading team has incorporated it into its macro analysis framework to develop trading strategies.
GateNews6h ago
Polymarket and Kalshi Face Setbacks as Prediction Markets Confront Legitimacy Questions - Unchained
This week, major prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi faced significant backlash, highlighting the divide between regulatory approval and public acceptance. Polymarket withdrew controversial betting markets after public outcry, while Kalshi's contract offerings were banned in Nevada, stressing the industry's legitimacy challenges.
UnchainedCrypto6h ago
Polymarket Partners With Spanish Football League La Liga
Polymarket has become La Liga's official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, gaining exclusive rights to use the league's intellectual property. This partnership aims to enhance fan engagement and comes amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
Coinpedia12h ago
