Despite continuous positive developments such as ETF approvals and institutional adoption, since mid-last year, capital has been steadily flowing out of the crypto market, with Bitcoin’s price performance resembling that of high-growth U.S. software stocks rather than traditional safe-haven assets. Grayscale’s latest research indicates a significant increase in the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. software sector, suggesting its trading logic is more aligned with growth assets.
Data shows that from the beginning of 2024 to now, Bitcoin and U.S. software stocks have moved in highly synchronized patterns. During recent sell-offs, both nearly fluctuated in the same direction, indicating that this decline is more due to a broad de-risking of growth assets rather than issues specific to the crypto industry. Capital flows also support this view: U.S. investors led the recent sell-off, with related Bitcoin ETPs experiencing approximately $318 million in net outflows since early February, further suppressing prices.
Deeper reasons stem from private credit. The current non-bank loan market, valued at around $3 trillion, has a significant proportion of software companies. As artificial intelligence disrupts traditional software business models, investors worry about declining recurring revenue and rising default rates. UBS warns that U.S. private credit default rates could rise to 13%. When credit tightens, funds often sell high-volatility assets to recover liquidity, leading Bitcoin to be treated as a “high-beta tech asset.”
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, points out that capital actually views Bitcoin and software companies as similar assets, both influenced by valuation cycles, growth expectations, and liquidity changes. Dan, head of research at Coinbureau, also believes that pressure from private credit has been evident since mid-2025, which is a key reason for Bitcoin’s decoupling from macro liquidity.
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