ChainCatcher reports that, according to CoinDesk, analyst at financial services firm Stifel predicts that Bitcoin prices could drop to around $38,000. The forecast is based on a long-term trend line connecting major Bitcoin bear market lows since 2010, which currently points to a level near $38,000.
The analyst team states in the report that the relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar, as well as global money supply, has reversed since 2025. Previously, Bitcoin tended to rise when the dollar was weakening and global liquidity was increasing, showing an inverse relationship with fiat currencies; but now its price trend has shifted to a positive correlation with the dollar, with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq index and growth stocks.
The report notes that despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its last three meetings in 2025, its stance remains hawkish, and borrowing costs for tech companies are rising, which could lead to tighter financial conditions and further pressure on the Bitcoin market.
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