The market trends in 2025 are clearly diverging: Bitcoin hits bottom, gold reaches new highs, and the Nasdaq rises against the backdrop of tightening liquidity, with the three assets seemingly taking different paths. Such changes have led many investors to question whether the familiar market rules of the past are being rewritten. In response, Arthur Hayes offers a different perspective. He believes that behind this divergence, there is not a single factor at play, but rather multiple forces pulling in different directions. It is this variable that has led him to make a different bet on the 2026 market than most others.
2025 Market Divergence: The Three Major Assets Move in Different Directions
Looking back at 2025, Hayes notes that Bitcoin performed the worst among major assets; meanwhile, gold prices continued to rise, and the Nasdaq repeatedly hit new highs. From a liquidity perspective, when US dollar liquidity declines, risk assets and alternative assets should both come under pressure simultaneously. However, the actual market movements have not followed this pattern.
Hayes points out that Bitcoin’s performance is entirely consistent with its positioning. As a monetary technology against fiat currency overissuance, Bitcoin heavily relies on US dollar liquidity. In 2025, with the US credit pulse weakening and dollar liquidity turning fragile, Bitcoin naturally declined. As for gold and US stocks, their continued rise is not because they are immune to liquidity effects, but because they are supported by “national-level buying” and policy forces.
Central Bank Buying Support: The Key Reason Hayes Continues to Hold Gold
Hayes states that his key reason for holding gold is not inflation hedging, but the fact that “central bank buying provides support.” Although traditionally gold is seen as an inflation hedge, since 2008 and especially after 2022, gold prices have significantly outpaced inflation, yet there is no sign of retail investors rushing in, indicating that the rise in gold prices is not driven by speculative capital.
He explains that the real driving force comes from central banks around the world. The large-scale money printing by the US in 2008 and the freezing of Russian assets in 2022 shook trust in the US dollar and US Treasuries, prompting central banks to accelerate selling US debt and buying gold. Since gold has no counterparty risk and is unaffected by political freezes, it has become the preferred choice.
At the same time, gold has re-emerged as an international settlement tool. By December 2025, the US trade deficit shrank mainly due to a surge in non-monetary gold exports, indicating a gradual move toward “de-dollarization” globally, and gold has regained its status as a core reserve asset.
Government Policies Supporting AI Lead to Divergence Between Tech Stocks and Bitcoin
Hayes states that, in theory, both tech stocks and Bitcoin should fluctuate with US dollar liquidity. However, in 2025, a divergence occurred: Nasdaq rose while Bitcoin fell. He believes the key reason is that AI has been incorporated into the national strategies of China and the US.
AI is seen as a core factor influencing productivity, military strength, and global competitiveness. China has focused on developing related industries through a five-year plan, while after Trump’s return, the US has directed funds toward AI via executive orders, government investments, and demand guarantees.
Therefore, Hayes believes that even if overall liquidity remains tight, AI-related companies can still continue to receive funding. As a result, Nasdaq becomes a “policy-protected bull market,” decoupled from Bitcoin. He also warns that once companies become tools of national strategy, shareholder interests will ultimately give way to political goals. China’s past experience of prioritizing national strategy over shareholder interests serves as a cautionary tale.
Three Major Drivers Could Boost US Dollar Liquidity Again in 2026
Hayes emphasizes that the core driver of Bitcoin remains US dollar liquidity. He expects that in 2026, dollar liquidity will expand significantly again, driven by three main factors:
Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Expansion: After the tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in 2025, the Fed will switch to a “Reserve Management Purchase Plan” (RMP) starting in December, adding at least $40 billion per month, with potential for further expansion.
Banks Increasing Lending to “Strategic Industries”: Under government investment or demand guarantees, banks will be more willing to lend, creating new deposits and directly expanding the money supply, similar to China’s model, though the US is just beginning.
Mortgage Rates Likely to Fall: Trump has called on mortgage institutions to use capital to purchase “Mortgage-Backed Securities” (MBS), indirectly injecting liquidity, boosting the housing market and wealth effects, and stimulating borrowing, consumption, and investment.
Hayes observes that Bitcoin and US dollar liquidity are approaching a synchronized bottom in terms of timing. If liquidity rebounds, Bitcoin will also rebound. The poor performance of Bitcoin in 2025 is not due to a failure of the mechanism but a lack of liquidity.
Leverage in Bitcoin and Increasing Zcash Holdings as Hayes’ 2026 Investment Strategy
Hayes describes himself as a high-risk preference investor. He states that he has fully invested his funds in the market but remains optimistic about liquidity recovery in 2026, continuing to increase risk exposure. He chooses to leverage stocks to buy Bitcoin, focusing on “Bitcoin Data Assets” like MSTR and Metaplanet.
He notes that these stocks are still relatively low compared to Bitcoin’s price. If Bitcoin returns to $110,000, market capital could flow into these stocks chasing Bitcoin, potentially resulting in gains higher than the coin’s price appreciation.
Additionally, he continues to increase holdings in Zcash, believing that the split of the development team is not negative but could lead to new products with greater commercial potential.
(Arthur Hayes: Global Money Printing Will Not Stop, Driving Bitcoin to Break $1 Million in 2028)
This article, Arthur Hayes: Optimistic About 2026 US Dollar Liquidity Rebound and Leveraged Purchases of MSTR and Metaplanet, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
