Bitcoin crazily吸 2.5 billion USD! Powell's silence assists in the surge to 150,000 USD

The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell deliberately avoided discussing monetary policy at the community bank conference on October 9. A 21Shares analyst referred to this as “strategic silence,” effectively giving the green light to risk assets. Bitcoin has attracted over $2.5 billion in three days, with a single-day inflow reaching the second highest in history, and the price has surpassed $126,000. Analysts predict it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, a 22% increase from current levels.

Powell's Strategic Silence: Why the Federal Reserve (FED) Doesn't Talk About Interest Rates?

On October 9, The Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Powell rarely avoided the topic of monetary policy during his speech at the community banking conference (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20251009a.htm), and this “strategic neglect” has attracted significant market attention.

· Data blockade creates a policy vacuum

Key factors: The shutdown of the U.S. federal government has led to a suspension of important economic data releases, including:

1. Non-Farm Payroll Report

2. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

3. Other key inflation indicators

Market Impact: 21Shares cryptocurrency research strategist Matt Mena pointed out that this data vacuum “actually gives the green light for risk assets.” The strong information held by traders and The Federal Reserve (FED) is insufficient to justify a new round of rate hikes.

· Interest rate cut expectations reach historic highs

According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool:

November FOMC meeting interest rate cut probability of 25 basis points (bps): 95%

December interest rate cut probability: 81.5%

Polymarket betting platform:

The possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in December: 71%

Probability of government shutdown continuing until after October 15: 88% (historical high)

Mena Analysis: “The data delays caused by the government shutdown will prompt the Federal Reserve (FED) to consider further easing of monetary policy.”

Bitcoin Absorbs $2.5 Billion: Record Fund Inflow

Under the dual impetus of Powell's silence and expectations of interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is experiencing explosive capital inflows.

· 3-Day Capital Frenzy Data Analysis

Inflow Statistics from October 6-8:

Total inflow: over 2.5 billion USD

October 7th single-day inflow: 1.2 billion USD (the second highest in history)

Price reaction: Driving BTC to break through 126,000 USD

Short-term pullback on October 8:

1. The rise in Japanese government bond yields has led to a strengthening of the US dollar.

2. The inflow for the day dropped to 440.7 million USD.

3. The market adopts tactical de-risking measures.

Three Pillars Behind Bitcoin Reaching a New High of $126,000

Mena pointed out that Bitcoin is consolidating near its historical highs, reinforcing its two major asset attributes:

Pillar One: Digital Gold Narrative

Gold continues to hit new highs, strengthening Bitcoin's positioning as a “devaluation trading” asset, providing a hedge against currency devaluation.

Pillar Two: Technology Growth Representative

The Nasdaq index has been reaching new highs almost daily, and Bitcoin is seen as a representative of innovative and growth-oriented technological assets.

Pillar Three: Improvement of Liquidity Environment

The Federal Reserve (FED) policy is expected to shift towards easing, and global liquidity continues to strengthen.

Mena stated: “Structurally, due to the continuous strengthening of liquidity, it is difficult for the market to see a top formation.”

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Three Major Reasons for a Surge to $150,000 by Year-End

21Shares analyst Matt Mena predicts that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, a 22% increase from the current level.

Reason 1: Technical Breakthrough Imminent

Key price level:

Current price: approximately $126,000

Breakthrough Key Level: 130,000 US Dollars

Target price: $150,000

Mena Analysis: “Once Bitcoin breaks through $130,000, I expect it to quickly surge towards $150,000 – just like a magnet.”

Reason 2: The market is digesting the pump

Current stage: The market is consolidating at a high level, preparing for the next round of pump.

Historical Rule: After Bitcoin breaks through its historical high, it usually experiences a brief consolidation, followed by an accelerated pump phase.

Reason Three: Continuous Improvement of the Macroeconomic Environment

The Federal Reserve (FED) policy shift:

1. Expectations for interest rate cuts strengthen

2. Data blockades reduce interest rate hike pressure

3. Powell's “silence” releases dovish signals

Funding Support:

1. Institutions continue to accumulate

2. Strong demand for spot ETFs

3. Retail investors' FOMO sentiment is rising

Mena summarized: “Powell may remain silent, but the liquidity expectations are evident, and other parts of the market seem to be catching up to this trend.”

How should investors respond?

Bullish Strategy:

1. Pay attention to the 130,000 USD breakout signal

2. Set tiered targets: $135,000, $140,000, $150,000

3. Use the consolidation period to build positions in batches.

4. Track the decisions of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in November.

Risk Management:

The strengthening of the US dollar may trigger a short-term pullback.

1. The change in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy affects global liquidity.

2. The data release after the government shutdown may change expectations.

3. Set stop-loss protection for existing profits.

Key Time Points

October 15: Expected End Time for Government Shutdown

November FOMC Meeting: First Rate Cut Decision of 25 Basis Points

December FOMC meeting: expected timing of the second rate cut

By the end of the year: $150,000 target price time window

Powell's strategic silence, expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and the influx of $2.5 billion in funds are creating a perfect environment for Bitcoin to rise. The improvement in market liquidity combined with technical breakout signals makes it not out of reach to hit $150,000 by the end of the year.