The U.S. government shutdown has led to a pause in the review of the XRP Spot ETF, triggering panic dumping in the market. Whales have sold over 440 million XRP in the past 30 days, worth approximately $1.25 billion, pushing the price below the critical support level of $2.8. Analysts predict that the government shutdown will last for 25.5 days, exceeding the first ETF decision deadline.
XRP Today's News: ETF Delay Triggers Market Volatility
On October 9, XRP fell 2.64% in a single day, closing at $2.8044. The U.S. Senate deadlock entered its ninth day, failing to pass a temporary funding bill, resulting in the SEC being understaffed and unable to review seven pending XRP Spot ETF application documents.
According to on-chain data:
Dumping scale: Large wallets holding 1 million to 10 million XRP dumped 440 million tokens.
Market Impact: The total value of the dumping is approximately 1.25 billion USD.
Price Impact: XRP falls below the key support level of 2.8 USD
Monthly performance: Cumulative fall of 1.51% in October
How does the government shutdown affect XRP?
The SEC's resource shortages directly delay the cryptocurrency ETF review process. Betting platform Kalshi predicts:
Probability of the door being closed for more than 20 days: 62%
The probability of the door being closed for more than 25 days: 50%
Estimated closure duration: 25.5 days (beyond the first ETF decision deadline on October 18)
XRP Price Prediction: Key Technical Levels and Scenario Analysis
(Source: Trading View)
· Core Technology Level
support level: $2.8, $2.5
Resistance levels: 3.0 USD, 3.1 USD, 3.3 USD, 3.66 USD (historical high)
· Bullish Scenario: XRP may surge to 3.3 USD
If the following catalysts appear, XRP is expected to rebound:
-
The Senate passed a temporary funding bill, and the SEC resumes operations.
-
BlackRock submits application documents for iShares XRP Trust.
-
Blue-chip companies adopt XRP as a financial reserve asset.
-
Ripple obtained a U.S. chartered bank license.
-
BITW, GDLC, and XRPR ETFs experience net fund inflow.
Target price: After breaking through 3.0 USD, it may challenge 3.1 USD, with further upside looking at 3.3 USD or even the historical high of 3.66 USD.
· Bearish scenario: may fall to 2.5 USD
If negative factors persist, XRP faces downside risk:
-
The government shutdown has been extended until October 18.
-
BlackRock abandons XRP ETF plan
-
Spot ETF experiences capital outflow.
-
Cryptocurrency-friendly regulations face obstacles.
Risk price: After falling below $2.8, it may test the $2.5 support level.
What should investors do next?
Closely monitoring the dynamics of the US Congress is crucial at this time. If the Senate passes the financing bill and the SEC restarts the review process, XRP may see a retaliatory rebound. Investors are advised to set price alerts and establish observation points at the 2.8 USD support level and the 3.0 USD resistance level, while managing position risk.
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