Quant Trading

This report provides an in-depth analysis of momentum investing within the Bitcoin (BTC) market, examining how classical technical indicators perform under varying trend and volatility conditions. Beginning with the theoretical foundations of momentum and its behavioral finance interpretations, the report systematically reviews the structural logic, signal mechanisms, and analytical functions of MACD, Bollinger Bands, ADX/DMI, and RSI. Using actual BTC price movements, it illustrates how these indicators reflect trend formation, momentum decay, volatility expansion, and potential reversal signals. Backtesting results over a full year show that different indicators produce highly divergent outcomes when exposed to the same market environment: trend-following and oversold-reversal strategies tend to struggle during weak or choppy market phases, while volatility-breakout methods, particularly Bollinger Band strategies, demonstrate higher win rates and more stable drawdown behavior.

From November 11 to November 24, 2025, the crypto market retreated under AI-bubble concerns and macro tightening pressures, though BTC and ETH staged a short-term rebound from local lows, keeping the broader structure in a consolidation phase. The top 500 tokens by market cap declined about 15% on average, with mid- and small-cap assets showing notable divergence—BEAT surged 436% to lead the market, while narrative-driven tokens such as SOON retraced 50–70%. A clear volume-price mismatch emerged, as tokens like AGENTFUN and XSO saw 10–15x volume spikes without meaningful price follow-through, reflecting cautious short-term sentiment despite ongoing structural opportunities. Amid this backdrop, several sectors—including prediction markets, DID identity systems, testnet participation, and yield aggregation platforms—have begun launching airdrop-driven campaigns. This report summarizes key participation methods to help users capture testnet incentives and potential rewards during the rebound phase and position a

BTC and ETH continue to trade in a weak, choppy structure, with prices trending lower and rebounds lacking strength. Volatility has spiked multiple times, reflecting fragile sentiment. On the derivatives side, leverage has not returned after a major deleveraging event, with open interest remaining at low levels. The concentrated long liquidations in early November further indicate declining confidence, suggesting that short-term downside risks remain. From a quantitative strategy perspective, the moving-average trend-breakout model has delivered strong performance in assets such as XRP, DOGE, and ADA, though it may still face signal delays and stop-loss whipsaws during strong one-sided trends. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund employs a market-neutral arbitrage and hedging framework, emphasizing stable returns and risk control, offering investors a lower-volatility and more sustainable long-term allocation option.

From October 28 to November 10, 2025, the crypto market continued its rotational pattern, with BTC and ETH rebounding to above $105,800 and $3,630, respectively. PoW and AI narratives became the core drivers of momentum. ORE surged 514%, while AIA and SOON rose 238% and 188%, attracting strong inflows into AI and emerging application sectors. Infrastructure and privacy-focused projects such as ICP, ZEC, and FIL also advanced, forming a “narrative + technology” dual-driven uptrend. Recently, projects in trending sectors like AI, Layer2, social points, and identity verification have successively launched airdrop campaigns — this report summarizes key participation methods to help users capture rebound opportunities and potential upside.

In October, Bitcoin recorded its first monthly loss since 2018, with the overall cryptocurrency market significantly underperforming traditional risk assets. Despite this weakness, the top 30% of quantitative fund portfolios achieved an impressive annualized return of 35.4%, substantially outperforming Bitcoin. The Hedging Investment-USDT strategy stood out, delivering a positive 5% return even as Bitcoin declined more than 5.5% during the month. Overall drawdowns across quantitative funds remained minimal, with the USDT strategy’s maximum drawdown at just -0.01%. Looking ahead to November, macro liquidity conditions and policy expectations are expected to continue driving market direction, while the crypto market may remain in a “high-volatility, low-trend” consolidation phase.

Since mid-October 2025, BTC and ETH have remained in a high-level consolidation phase, with price structures and volatility showing clear divergence while short-term momentum has weakened. In the derivatives market, leveraged positions have undergone deleveraging followed by gradual recovery, with ETH positions displaying stronger resilience. On October 10, long-position liquidations exceeded $19 billion, reflecting mounting pressure at higher price levels and fading short-term confidence. Overall structure remains stable, though the rebound momentum appears limited. In terms of quantitative strategies, the RSI-based reversal model has performed solidly in assets such as BTC, delivering cumulative returns of around 50%. However, higher returns are still accompanied by greater volatility and drawdown risk. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund focuses on market-neutral arbitrage and hedging strategies, emphasizing stable returns and robust risk management to provide investors with a more balanced and sustainable qu

From October 7 to October 20, 2025, the crypto market continued its rotational structure, with BTC rebounding from 102,100 USDT and ETH stabilizing near 3,680 USDT before moving upward. RAIL surged over 125%, driven by renewed interest in privacy narratives and anticipation of upcoming compliance summits, while COAI and H both gained more than 110%. Overall, capital flowed primarily into mid- and small-cap tokens, with strong rotations across privacy, AI, and on-chain computing themes. Recently, several trending projects in NFT, DEX, and AI sectors have also launched airdrop campaigns, providing users with opportunities to capture rebound momentum and early participation rewards.

From September 9 to September 22, 2025, both BTC and ETH remained in a high-level consolidation phase, with divergences emerging between price structure and volatility performance, indicating overall weak short-term momentum. On the derivatives side, BTC open interest retreated significantly from recent highs, while ETH held relatively steady, suggesting that leveraged positions have not yet fully exited the market. On September 22, long liquidation volume surged to over $1.6 billion, highlighting mounting pressure at market highs and intensifying bearish sentiment due to cascading stop-losses by long positions. In terms of quantitative strategies, a mean-reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands delivered strong performance on ADA, achieving an annualized return of over 60%, showcasing solid potential for short-term trading.

From September 2 to September 15, 2025, the crypto market continued its sector rotation pattern, with BTC and ETH testing key resistance levels at 117,400 and 4,950 USDT, respectively. MYX and CONSCIOUS each surged over 900%, while OPENX and ATH also posted gains above 90%, highlighting strong volume-price correlation and a clear capital shift toward mid- and small-cap narrative-driven tokens. Recently, a series of airdrop campaigns have been launched across trending sectors such as AI, DePIN, and SocialFi. This article outlines key participation methods to help users capture potential upside and airdrop opportunities during the rebound.

Gate Research Report: From August 12 to August 25, 2025, ETH continued its strong upward trend, breaking above 4,900 USDT to reach a new all-time high. BIO posted a notable 81.38% gain, accompanied by over a 9-fold increase in trading volume, making it one of the standout projects in this round of price–volume resonance. API3 also surged on rising volume, with a stage gain of 77.09%. Additionally, airdrop tasks have recently been launched by projects such as Edgen, Symbiotic, Pharos, and Cerebro. This article will outline the participation methods to help users capture the rebound gains and potential opportunities.

Gate Research: From August 5 to August 18, 2025, the cryptocurrency market as a whole maintained a high-level consolidation pattern, with major coins showing relatively strong technical structures. Supported by ETF net inflows, ETH outperformed BTC in price action. Both the long-short ratio and funding rates declined in tandem, reflecting a weakening willingness to chase long positions and a more cautious market sentiment, with short-term movements leaning toward structural consolidation. While open interest and funding rates remained elevated, they did not reach overheated levels, suggesting that leverage structures were still healthy. Liquidation activity was moderate, helping to cleanse market sentiment and build momentum for subsequent moves. On the quantitative strategy side, the moving average breakout strategy generated over 285% returns in SUI, demonstrating strong potential for short-term trading.

Gate Research Report: From July 28 to August 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market saw a strong upward trend driven by the combined effects of a recovering public chain ecosystem and favorable policy developments. ETH reached a new swing high in technical terms, breaking above 4,300 USDT. MYX surged by an impressive 1608.26%, standing out as the top performer; mid-cap tokens such as SOON and GMX saw increased trading volumes, becoming favored targets for short-term capital; while large-cap assets like MNT and AERO remained stable, serving as liquidity anchors. Recently, projects including ByteNova, Camp Network, Beamable, and Nexus have launched airdrop campaigns, and this report outlines participation methods to help users capture rebound gains and potential opportunities.

Gate Research: This report explores the classic Turtle Trading system and its applicability in the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on analyzing the design principles and empirical performance of the improved AdTurtle Turtle Trading system. By systematically backtesting historical GT/USDT data, it evaluates the performance of both the traditional and improved strategies in highly volatile markets, and summarizes their advantages, disadvantages, and directions for optimization.

Gate Research: From July 15 to July 28, 2025, the overall crypto market maintained a moderately bullish trend. BTC traded sideways at high levels with a stable structure, while ETH steadily climbed toward 4,000 USDT, showing relatively stronger short-term performance. In terms of volatility, BTC remained stable while ETH volatility increased, reflecting rising market divergence. Long-short ratios and funding rates declined to a more neutral-to-cautious zone, with open interest staying elevated. Leverage growth was more notable on ETH. Liquidation activity remained relatively rational, with long liquidations peaking at $630 million on July 23, indicating a high-level flush that helped release upward momentum. On the quantitative strategy side, a MACD trend-following strategy achieved over 150% returns trading SUI, demonstrating strong short-term trading potential.

Gate Research Report: From July 8 to 21, 2025, the crypto market experienced a notable upswing, driven by a combination of favorable policy developments and strong technical momentum. The game-focused public chain CROSS led the rally with a remarkable 476% gain, while GAL, SUSHI, and other tokens saw significant volume-driven price increases, attracting short-term capital inflows. Large-cap assets like ETC remained stable, serving as liquidity anchors. The market overall maintained a pattern of “theme-based rotation and mid-to-large cap resilience,” with volume surges continuing to be a key indicator of sentiment. Meanwhile, airdrop campaigns from projects such as Orochi, Gradient, OneFootball, and Fleek have recently gone live. This article outlines participation methods to help users capture potential upside and rebound-related opportunities.