BTC returns to 94,000, but VC is not happy.

On April 23, as Trump announced a drop in tariffs on China, this news reignited market sentiment.

Investor confidence in risk assets has quickly rebounded, with BTC quietly rising 7%, and the price returning to $94,000.

Everything seems to have returned again for a night.

BTC is one step closer to breaking the historical high of 100,000 USD since the beginning of the year, with Twitter filled with expectations for a new bull market. Traders in the secondary market are busy chasing rises and cutting losses, as the market seems to have returned to the fervent spring of 2021.

However, this return of emotions does not belong to everyone.

It is lively for them, while first-level investors may face signs of a bull return, remaining silent.

The cow returns to die in the lock-up.

The news of BTC returning to 94,000 USD has made secondary market investors cheer with joy, but for primary market investors, this carnival feels like a distant illusion.

Most of their tokens are in a locked state and cannot be traded freely, and the market performance over the past year has caused them significant losses.

A chart from STIX (@stix_co) reveals this cruel reality.

@stix_co is a platform focused on cryptocurrency OTC (over-the-counter) trading, providing liquidity support for locked tokens.

The above chart compares the valuation changes of multiple tokens in May 2024 and April 2025: May 2024 represents the valuation of these tokens during over-the-counter trading (the price at which primary investors can sell them when locked), while April 2025 represents the actual valuation of these tokens in the public market (i.e., the current market price).

The results show that, on average, the valuation of these tokens has dropped by 50% within a year.

Let's look at a few specific examples.

The off-market valuation of BLAST last year was $250 million, and now the market valuation has dropped to $30 million, a decrease of 88%; EIGEN fell from $600 million to $150 million, a decrease of 75%; SCR fared worse, dropping from $170 million to $25.5 million, a decrease of 85%.

Almost all tokens have dropped significantly, with only JTO being an exception, rising from 100 million dollars to 175 million dollars, an increase of 75%.

But this is just an exception and cannot cover up the overall bleak situation.

In simple terms, the tokens held by these primary investors, if they were not sold through OTC transactions last year, have directly dropped to an average value of half, with some even remaining only at one or two percent.

To provide some background knowledge, over-the-counter trading refers to the ability of primary investors to sell their tokens privately before the tokens are unlocked, usually at a discount.

Taran mentioned in the post in the above picture that last year these tokens were traded off-exchange at a price that was about 80% to 90% of their valuation.

In other words, if they had sold last year, they might have only lost 10%-20%, or even not lost anything at all. However, some investors chose to hold for a year, waiting for the unlock, and as a result, the average value of the tokens dropped by 50%, with some even falling by 70-80%, leading to a significant reduction in wealth.

You might say that their investment cost is low, and even if it falls so much, they still have to make money.

But the problem is that there is something called opportunity cost in economics. As an investor, what is more painful than earning less (and possibly even losing) is the theoretical loss of opportunity cost.

In an ideal theoretical scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 45% over the past 12 months.

If first-level investors sold their tokens last year and exchanged them for BTC, their money may have increased to 1.45 times the original amount.

But now, their token value is only 0.5 times, and even after unlocking in the future, it may have to be sold at a further 50% discount, ultimately worth only 0.25 times.

In other words, compared to the increase in BTC, their actual loss reached 82.8%; even in USD, they lost 75%.

It's like watching others make a fortune while the assets in your hands keep shrinking.

"Niu Hui" may have already died from lock-up for them.

Locking for a year, losing half, the most frustrating thing about this is:

Researching, comparing, identifying, and investing in projects, after putting in the effort, it’s still more cost-effective to just hold BTC directly.

In the classic investment book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," there is a famous "gorilla throwing darts theory."

Author Burton Malkiel suggested that if a blindfolded gorilla randomly throws darts at a stock board, the long-term returns of the selected portfolio may not be worse than those carefully chosen by professional investors.

This theory was originally intended to satirize the ineffectiveness of over-analysis in the stock market, but now applied to the cryptocurrency market, it feels particularly ironic.

First-level investors spend a lot of time and effort researching white papers, analyzing project prospects, and even locking up funds for a year to seek high returns, but the result may be: it might be better to just throw a dart at Bitcoin.

BTC has risen by 45% over the past year, while their locked tokens have dropped by an average of 50%, or even more.

The valuation and investment logic of the entire altcoin market may need to be reshaped.

Spring won't come back

Is the next wave of crypto altcoin play still about locking up?

VC enters at a low price, and the lock-up mechanism was originally designed to protect the project in its early stages, preventing early investors from selling off in large quantities and causing a price crash. However, looking at the data from the past year, this mechanism has also subjected first-round investors to significant risks.

The previous chart also mentioned that over 40 billion dollars worth of locked tokens will be gradually unlocked in the future, which means the market may face greater selling pressure. If new tokens continue to be locked at high valuations, investors may fall into a vicious cycle of "locked for a year, losing half."

Clearly, the practice of locking up funds is no longer suitable for the current market environment.

Will primary investment in the crypto market still be hot? Can the spring of primary investment return? From the current situation, the answer may not be optimistic.

In the past few years, the high valuations of altcoins were often based on market frenzy and liquidity premiums, but as the market matures, investors are beginning to pay more attention to the actual value and liquidity of projects.

The high risk of locked tokens makes first-level investors hesitant, and more and more people may choose projects that are more transparent and liquid.

Some emerging trends have already become apparent: such as shorter lock-up periods, lower valuation multiples, and even directly issuing Memes to reduce the bubble of primary investments;

Of course, it is also possible that it is still old wine in a new bottle. Beneath the fairer appearance of meme coins, the first-level logic still exists, creating a game that makes it hard for you to see the existence of the first level.

For the entire cryptocurrency market, a more transparent mechanism has become particularly important. The locking mechanism also needs to find a better balance, protecting the project in its early stages while not exposing investors to excessive risk.

But the question arises, if level one doesn't lose, level two doesn't lose, and the retail investors don't lose, then who will lose?

Cryptocurrencies do not produce value, but rather transfer value; if someone profits, someone else must incur a loss.

The spring of one wave of people is bound to be the winter of another wave of people.