重温上轮Bull Market"灰度效应":14个代币回报率超200%,市场周期显有影响

Author: Nancy, PANews

In recent times, with the soaring prices of coins such as SUI and ZEN, the "Grayscale effect" has reappeared, and Grayscale holdings have also become one of the market's investment indicators. So, how has the performance of Grayscale's selected cryptocurrency in terms of investment returns? This article by PANews reviews the market performance of 14 tokens involved in the crypto trust funds launched by Grayscale during the last bull market cycle, covering the period from March 2021 to March 2022.

Average ROI exceeds 200%, significant market cycle impact

During the last bull market, Grayscale introduced 14 cryptocurrency trust products through the OTC market, DeFi fund DEFG, and GSCPxE fund. These products were launched gradually over a year. In terms of the launch time of the products, Grayscale started to introduce related token funds in the early stage of the bull market and accelerated the layout frequency in the middle and later stages.

In terms of investment return, the average highest increase of these 14 tokens after Grayscale's launch is 204.8%. Among them, LPT, LDO, and BAT have particularly outstanding increases, reaching 1497.1%, 292.6%, and 239.8% respectively. In contrast, SOL, DOT, and SNX have increases far below the average level.

In terms of the time required for investments to generate returns, the average cycle for 14 tokens to reach new highs is 84.4 days. Among them, BAT, MANA, and LPT require longer periods, mostly exceeding 250 days, but the returns are relatively higher. On the other hand, SOL, FIL, AVAX, and DOT reached new highs in a shorter period, but their gains are relatively limited. This period is currently in a market adjustment phase after Bitcoin's new high. This phenomenon not only indicates that holding for a longer period during a bull market usually has more advantages in terms of returns but is also related to the time of product launch. The rising cycle of the past sectors shows that most public chains are the first targets to rise in the bull market, and these projects launched by Grayscale mostly achieved good gains in the early stage, leading to limited upside potential in the later stage.

However, this difference is also to some extent influenced by changes in the market cycle. Specifically, the average increase in the token funds launched by Grayscale in the early stages of the bull market in the first half of 2021 was 446.8%; while in the mid-term bull market from April to November 2021, the increase dropped to 85.4%; and during the market correction in March 2022, the increase in the tokens launched was only 40.3%. It can be seen that the return on investment of Grayscale is greatly affected by the fluctuation of the market cycle, showing obvious cyclical characteristics.

From this perspective, although Grayscale's cryptocurrency trust products have provided considerable returns during bull markets, their performance is significantly affected by market fluctuations. Therefore, investors should fully consider the overall market trend when making investment decisions.

Ginseng与多个爆发代币布局,扩大投资产品范围

Recently, multiple token prices have shown strong performance, and Grayscale's layout may play an important role in driving market trends.

For example, the price of XRP broke through a new high for many years. In September of this year, Grayscale announced that it would relaunch the first American XRP trust fund and officially open it to eligible investors in the near future. It's worth noting that as early as January 2021, Grayscale removed the XRP trust fund and liquidated the tokens it held due to the Ripple legal dispute. This change is also interpreted by the outside world as paving the way for a potential XRP spot ETF, and the price of XRP has continued to rise in the following months, indicating a positive market response to Grayscale's move.

SUI's price has also performed very strongly in the past few months. Several months ago, Grayscale updated its investment strategy and announced the Top 20 tokens expected to rise significantly by the end of 2024, including 6 new tokens such as SUI and TAO. At the same time, Grayscale has started the investment layout of SUI, announcing in August of this year that it will launch Grayscale SuiTrust and officially open it to qualified investors in the near future.

Another token worth paying attention to is ZEN, which has also seen a significant price increase recently, with a rise of approximately 215% in the past 30 days. After increasing its holdings of ZEN tokens recently, Grayscale also announced the latest submission of the Grayscale Horizen Trust (ZEN) 8-K form to the SEC, allowing investors to gain exposure to ZEN tokens in a securities form.

In addition to these projects, Grayscale also provides legitimacy and recognition for more cryptocurrencies. On December 24th, Grayscale announced the private placement of 22 cryptocurrency trust products, including mainstream tokens such as AAVE, AVAX, LINK, SOL, XRP, as well as fund products in DeFi, AI, and other niche tracks, for qualified investors to subscribe based on Net Asset Value (NAV). The products opened this time cover thematic funds such as Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund, Grayscale Decentralized Finance Fund, as well as single asset trusts for emerging protocols such as Bittensor, Lido DAO, Optimism.

In addition, Grayscale is further accelerating its business expansion and seeking more professionals to meet the increasingly complex market demands. At the beginning of this month, Grayscale announced the recruitment, involving positions such as Tax Director, Senior Manager of ETF Products, Digital Asset Trader, Investment Portfolio Manager, Product Manager, and Engineering Supervisor.

Although the specific impact of these measures on the price of the currency has not yet fully materialized, grayscale will further promote the mainstream market for cryptographic assets by providing investors with a more diverse and professional investment products.

Related reading: Inventory of 21 Grayscale Crypto Trusts: Some have risen 10 times, some have been bearish all the way, easy to step on the last bus of the bull market and become a market counter-indicator.