War risk shocks global markets: oil prices surge past $110, Asian stock markets plummet, Bitcoin stays steady at $67,000

March 9 News: Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East have triggered intense volatility in global markets. On Monday, Asian stock markets generally declined sharply, while energy prices surged rapidly. Crude oil futures soared about 17% within 24 hours, breaking the $110 per barrel mark, while Bitcoin remained stable around $67,000, showing no signs of panic selling.

Major Asian stock indices were significantly impacted. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell over 6%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped about 8%. Markets worry that the war could disrupt the global energy supply chain, especially at the Strait of Hormuz. This key passage handles about 20% of the world’s oil transportation. If shipments are blocked, international oil prices could rise further.

Market forecast data shows strong expectations for short-term oil price increases. Polymarket contracts indicate traders believe there’s a 76% chance that oil prices will reach $120 by the end of March 2026. However, derivatives markets also show mixed signals. On Hyperliquid, the funding rate for crude oil perpetual futures has turned negative, suggesting some traders are betting on a price correction.

Unlike traditional markets, which are experiencing sharp fluctuations, cryptocurrencies are performing relatively stably. Bitcoin remains around $67,000, while Ethereum and Solana have seen slight increases. The market generally views this oil price rise as an energy supply shock rather than a systemic financial risk, so there has been no significant inflow of safe-haven funds or large-scale sell-offs in crypto markets.

Meanwhile, interest rate expectations remain stable. Polymarket data shows about a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, with only about a 12% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the end of April. If oil prices continue to climb, inflation pressures could re-emerge, which will be an important factor for Fed Chair Powell to consider when setting monetary policy. (CoinDesk)