The collapse of the 760-fold myth, how did the sports betting king Polymarket fall to this?

Original Title: “The Mystery of the Fall of Polymarket, the 'God of Sports Prediction' After Making $4 Million and Dropping to Zero”

Original: Odaily Planet Daily

Author: Wenser

Polymarket's prediction games have always been a feast for the few and a gamble for the many. Similar to contract markets, it is also filled with “black swan” events, especially when it comes to sports upsets.

Today, I want to talk about the fall of a trader once hailed as the “God of Sports Prediction”—Mayuravarma. This trader, with an Indian caste flair, once violently escalated a principal of $5,000 to $3.8 million in just one month, achieving a profit of up to 760 times, and briefly ranked sixth on the sports profit list. However, what goes up must come down; within just a week, his assets were nearly drop to zero.

Mayuravarma's experience once again confirms that the so-called “tail-end strategy” on Polymarket is not reliable. Betting events like sports games often have dramatic reversals at the last moment — what you are betting on is not just that little “certain profit,” but your entire principal.

Next, let's review the collapse of this prophetic myth together.

The Rebirth of an Indian Noble as the “God of Sports Prediction”: A Journey in the Prediction Market Starting from LOL Competitions

Mayuravarma began his prediction market journey during the LOL World Championship. According to information on his homepage, he placed a total of 9 bets during the LOL S15 World Championship, with an ultimate result of 6 wins and 3 losses, achieving a win rate of approximately 67%. In the end, his total losses from LOL match betting amounted to about 20,000 dollars, while his profit was around 790,000 dollars, including:

• In the match of AL against T1, a bet of 150,000 USD was placed, winning 162,500 USD;
• In the final match between KT and T1, a bet of 1.1 million USD was placed, ultimately winning nearly 600,000 USD.

Personal Information Home Page

From eSports events to professional sports leagues in the United States: Mayuravarma's path to divinity

With the help of the annual world-class esports event, Mayuravarma successfully earned a net profit of approximately $770,000. After briefly betting on 3 matches of LOL, he began his “path to becoming a sports event prediction god,” and his betting field expanded from LOL esports events to the famous American professional leagues and various sports events—CFB (College Football), NHL (National Hockey League), NBA (National Basketball Association), and NFL (National Football League), among others.

At first, Mayuravarma's betting could almost be described as “winning every bet”: in 5 CFB events and 2 NHL games, he achieved a return rate of around 30% to 82% through multiple bets, with a maximum profit reaching as high as $360,000.

Here we can also see Mayuravarma's betting style: he tends to place pre-match bets, with amounts ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rarely sells during the match. This has both allowed him to gradually roll over his small capital to achieve significant results in the early stages, and laid the groundwork for his subsequent ALL IN attempt to turn the tables in an NHL match, which ultimately backfired.

Subsequently, after joining the NFL betting, its winning rate suddenly dropped from high to low: in 5 NFL games, its winning rate fell from the previous 100% winning rate of CFB betting to around 40%.

There are 2 dramatic details here worth elaborating on:

Firstly, in an early NHL match between the Wild and the Rangers, Mayuravarma placed a bet on the Rangers to win with odds of 57:43, ultimately losing $275,000 in betting funds; in the subsequent NHL match, he again bet on the opposing team of the Wild, the Devils, due to a higher winning probability, earning $86,000 from a bet of less than $120,000, which highlights the randomness of the prediction market.

Secondly, in the NHL game on November 22 where the Wild faced the Penguins, they placed a $1 million bet on the Penguins to win. Ultimately, the Wild shocked everyone by defeating the Penguins 5-0, resulting in a loss of their $1 million bet.

Subsequently, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA games, correctly predicting the Warriors to defeat the Lakers in 2 matches, with a single game profit of nearly $100,000 and a reported win rate of 50%.

The results of the subsequent betting events seemed somewhat dull, but the process was quite smooth for Mayuravarma. He maintained a relatively high win rate in LOL matches, NHL games, and NBA contests, and from the betting interfaces of these games, we can also see another betting style of his: he tends to bet on teams that have a higher chance of winning and stronger capabilities before the match, rather than hoping for unexpected upsets. This reflects Mayuravarma's deep attention and understanding of various sports events to some extent, while also providing a certain guarantee for his continuous profitability, though it also leaves some risk for unexpected outcomes in the matches.

After all, just like the saying often heard in football matches and various sports events: “Football is round, and anything can happen.” It could be an own goal, a heroic solo breakthrough, or perhaps an unintentional mistake by the referee. In short, there are infinite possibilities in sports events, and every unexpected outcome represents a gamble where bettors put their hard-earned money at stake.

Potential impact of prediction markets: When money becomes a paper number

In the repeated betting of events, Mayuravarma's betting amount kept increasing, starting from 2,000 dollars, gradually increasing to 30,000 to 50,000 dollars, and later, he would casually bet with funds of 100,000 dollars. In less than a month, he leaped from being the “newbie in the prediction market” to being referred to as the “betting whale” by players in the Polymarket.

From the following settlement records, Mayuravarma is in the “normal distribution range” during this phase:

• In 24 matches, the win rate remains at 50%, with successful bets on 12 matches and failed bets on the remaining events;
• In 12 failed betting matches, the total investment was approximately 840,000 USD, all of which was lost;
• In 12 winning betting matches, the total profit is approximately 1.64 million dollars, with a profit-loss ratio close to 2, meaning the profit funds are about 1.95 times the loss funds.
• The two largest losses both came from NBA games, with one loss of $102,600 and the other loss of $102,000;
• The largest profit came from the NHL game where the Bruins faced the Senators, with an investment of $992,000 and a profit of over $607,000.

Overall, the betting results of Mayuravarma during this phase belong to “lose less and win more.” What is particularly noteworthy is that he finally learned to cut losses in a timely manner in the NBA game between the Jazz and the Trail Blazers, investing $20,000 and ultimately stopping losses with less than $300 in losses, avoiding a “total collapse.”

Mayuravarma Betting Event Result Record (from bottom to top, time from early to late)

In the subsequent betting, Mayuravarma seemed to have found the knack for predicting the market again, returning to the “winning general” status: out of 12 matches, only 3 of his bets failed, while all the others were successful. It was also during this stage that he welcomed his moment of glory:

In the CFB matchup between Houston and UCF, a betting amount of $745,000 ultimately yielded a profit of $687,200, resulting in an impressive profit rate of 92.25%. This is also the largest profit amount for the account to date, ranking first among 108 betting actions.

But then, perhaps like the cryptocurrency market which often sees a pullback after a new high, the individual highlight of Mayuravarma ushered in his darkest hour: in the next 10 matches (including the previous one, a total of 11 matches), it was as if his good luck had run out, leading to a painful “10 consecutive losses”, with accumulated losses reaching as high as 2.05 million dollars.

In this stage, most of the events where Mayuravarma suffered losses (with a probability of 8/11) are NHL hockey events, which have an upset rate of about 30%, the highest among the four major professional leagues in the United States, far exceeding events like the NBA, MLB, and NFL. This might have also laid a certain foundation for his eventual outcome of “a single misstep leading to total defeat.”

“11 consecutive losses”

How Gamblers Are Made: When Bettors Are No Longer Satisfied with Small Stakes

Perhaps just like fengdubiying who made millions of dollars betting on LOL esports events relying on skill and luck, after experiencing painful consecutive defeats, LOL esports events have also become the “turning point artifact” for Mayuravarma.

After winning the “T1 wins LOL S15 World Championship” and raking in a profit of 600,000 USD while in custody, Mayuravarma has found his “gambling luck” again, and his overall performance has finally shaken off the bad luck, starting to have both wins and losses.

But for him at this moment, perhaps he had long been accustomed to betting “regarding money as numbers,” and his betting funds were no longer limited to the previous scale of 100,000 USD, but instead increased to often three to five hundred thousand USD, and he even dared to directly bet 1 million USD with a profit rate of about 30%.

When a trader, known for his “stable and conservative, only buying strong teams” style, changes his previous cautious trading attitude, there is no doubt that he has been influenced, to some extent, by the complex market environment and the obsession of “just wanting to win.” The outcome, of course, is also obvious.

Transaction history (from bottom to top is from early to late)

January ascended to divinity, a week fell from grace: Mayuravarma's “Dynasty Path” thus comes to an end.

On November 14, thanks to about a month of quick maneuvers, Mayuravarma's personal profit funds soared from an initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.

Mayuravarma account profit peak data

Just a week later, Mayuravarma suffered consecutive losses in NHL and CFB matches, bringing his profits close to drop to zero:

• In the CFB game between Texas State and Southern Miss, a bet of 1.2 million dollars was placed on Southern Miss to win, resulting in the total loss of the principal.
• In the NHL game between the Capitals and Canadiens, they went ALL IN again, investing $1.2 million to buy into the Canadiens with a higher pre-game win rate. Ultimately, they did not implement timely stop-loss measures, losing nearly $1.2 million entirely. Within a week, their personal profit and loss data had turned from profit to a loss of -$3.8 million.

It was also last Saturday, November 22, after experiencing a roller coaster of “making over 3.8 million and then profit taking,” that Mayuravarma deleted his account on the X platform in a fit of anger.

Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to become a major joke on Polymarket, Mayuravarma transferred another $1 million to his personal account and once again placed bets on various sporting events, but the final result was still more losses than wins.

As of the time of writing (November 26), Mayuravarma's personal account interface on Polymarket shows a total loss of $885,000, with a current position of approximately $278,500. This also means that he has not only given back all of his previous betting profits but has also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own principal.

In a certain sense, in sports events where bets are placed on the outcome of teams winning or losing, the prediction market of “one side wins and the other side loses” is not much different from the contract market of “either rise or fall”: in the limited choice opportunities, the seemingly fewer choices in the prediction market may be more brutal than the contract market with leveraged multiples. Many people find it difficult to implement timely stop-loss measures in contract opening, instead choosing to wait for the dust to settle or hoping for an underdog surprise at the end of the event. At that time, players lose not only their high hopes but also their hard-earned precious capital.

Under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of the event, the “winner takes all” of the prediction market seems even more brutal.

ID determines destiny? From fengdubiying to “Peacock Dynasty Creator”

Perhaps, the prediction market always carries a hint of mysticism – even the trader's ID seems like a mysterious spell, quietly influencing his profit and loss trajectory.

In Sanskrit, the prototype of Mayura is “मयूर”（Mayūra）, meaning “peacock”, which symbolizes holiness and beauty in Indian culture; Varma is commonly found in South Asian surnames, originating from the Sanskrit “वर्मन्”（Varman）, meaning “protector” or “armor”, often associated with the nobility or warrior class; additionally, the Varma suffix is commonly found in the noble surnames of Kerala in India, implying the duties of a protector within the caste system.

In addition, as mentioned in the personal homepage introduction of Mayuravarma Polymarket, this ID has a certain connection with Mayurasharma, the founder of the Kadamba dynasty in India, which was symbolized by the peacock and ruled the area of present-day Karnataka in India. The latter's name signifies “Protector of the Peacock.” Inscriptions from South India record that his name reflects the combination of Kshatriya (warrior class) and nature worship.

Just like the “Peacock Dynasty” that disappeared in the long river of history, during the vigorous development of the prediction market, Mayuravarma is merely a “trading footnote” that rises and falls abruptly.

It is foreseeable that legendary stars who suddenly become rich like him are still eager to bet in the Polymarket betting market, while there are also many traders who have fallen from grace and had their assets drop to zero. Like “Brother Mahji” Huang Licheng, who has repeatedly fought in the contract market despite failures, Mayuravarma is neither the first nor the last.