Bitcoin's $81K Bottom Zone: How 200 EMA and Multi-SMA Bands Track Cycle Lows

⬤ Bitcoin cycle bottom discussions are heating up again after a long-term chart started making rounds, showing where BTC has repeatedly found footing during past bear markets. This isn’t about calling tops or predicting crashes—it’s about tracking recurring patterns where Bitcoin tends to form bottoms. The framework breaks down into three parts: where the first bounce usually happens, where deeper accumulation zones develop, and what price action would break the entire pattern.

⬤ The chart centers on a cluster of long-term moving averages: the 200 EMA alongside the 350, 400, and 500 SMAs. Across several cycles, Bitcoin approaches this band and creates a reaction area marked as zone “1”, then often dips into a deeper zone “2” within the same moving average region. The key takeaway? Bitcoin bottoms aren’t single price points—they’re zones that unfold as price interacts with these long-term trend indicators

⬤ There’s also an invalidation component built into this framework. If Bitcoin breaks below a key weekly moving average level and fails to respect the historical pattern around these averages, the setup would be considered broken. This approach treats Bitcoin cycles as somewhat predictable phases where reaction and accumulation zones appear near long-duration trend measures. It’s similar to recent discussions about BTC testing long-term moving average support, showing how major averages become reference points during market drawdowns.

⬤ Why does this matter? Because these repeatable zones are what many traders watch during cycle corrections. By highlighting a consistent multi-average band and distinguishing between initial bounces and deeper accumulation, the framework reinforces that Bitcoin bottoms typically develop as a process around long-term trend measures—not as sudden reversals at arbitrary levels.