打破纪录的预测市场：Polymarket 10月交易额达27.6亿美元

Polymarket just hit a milestone that’s making waves across crypto circles—$2.76 billion in monthly trading volume as of October 2025, with 445,000+ active traders. To put this in perspective, that’s a 25x jump from June’s $110 million. So what’s fueling this explosive growth, and how does this decentralized prediction platform actually work?

Why Polymarket Became the Go-To for Event Betting

Unlike traditional prediction platforms like PredictIt, Polymarket strips away the gatekeeping. No KYC. No middlemen holding your funds. You connect your MetaMask wallet, deposit USDC, and you’re trading probability shares on everything from US elections to Bitcoin price movements—all on Polygon for near-zero fees.

The appeal is straightforward: if you think an event will happen, you buy “Yes” shares at whatever the market prices them. If you’re right, those shares hit $1 when the market resolves. Wrong? They go to zero. The platform’s smart contracts handle everything—no platform risk, no counterparty issues.

The October Surge: What Triggered It

The timing isn’t coincidence. The US 2024 presidential race became Polymarket’s biggest market ever—over $2.6 billion in bets. At one point, the platform showed Trump at 66% implied probability vs. Harris at 34%. That single market alone drove mainstream attention and FOMO into the platform.

Bitcoin price prediction markets also exploded, with over $4 billion total volume. Traders were betting on BTC hitting $70k+ in October amid election fever.

How the Economics Actually Work

Polymarket doesn’t charge trading fees. Instead, liquidity providers earn rewards from transaction spreads (typically minimal). Deposits and withdrawals hit you with relay fees ($3 + network cost, or 0.3% of deposit, whichever is larger) due to the Ethereum bridge.

This is the genius: users get cheap trading, LPs get paid, Polymarket captures volume-based upside. It’s a virtuous cycle—higher volumes → more fees → better incentives for liquidity → tighter spreads → more traders.

Decentralized vs. Regulated: Trade-Offs

Polymarket operates globally without KYC, which explains its US ban after a $1.4M CFTC fine in 2024. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi operates as a regulated US platform with strict compliance. Both have their markets.

The tech stack matters too: Polymarket runs on Polygon L2, enabling near-instant settlement and sub-cent fees. Competitors like Augur require token ownership (REP) for key actions, inflating costs. Gnosis offers broader services but more complexity.

The Whale Effect (And Why It Matters)

Large traders can swing prices dramatically by placing massive bets. This creates opportunities for contrarian traders who spot overreactions. During the election, watching whale activity became a meta-game—sharp money sometimes telegraphs real conviction before events resolve.

Looking Ahead: Token Rumors and Regulatory Uncertainty

Rumors suggest Polymarket is raising $50M for a native token launch, potentially including airdrops to early users. This would unlock governance and incentive mechanisms other DEFi platforms leverage. But nothing’s confirmed yet.

Regulatory winds remain choppy. The CFTC’s stance on event contracts is unclear, and international regulation could shift the game. Polymarket’s advisory board includes ex-CFTC chief Christopher Giancarlo, signaling serious compliance efforts.

Bottom Line

Polymarket tapped into something powerful: transparent, real-money probability markets without gatekeepers. The October surge proved the appetite is real. Whether it sustains post-election depends on rulemaking and product evolution, but for now, it’s redefining how crypto users interact with predictions.

Key Takeaway: Prediction markets work because financial incentives force accuracy. When money is on the line, collective intelligence tends to beat expert guesses. Polymarket’s volume spike validates that principle at scale.