鲍威尔半推半就，给未来降息架好了“台阶”

鲍威尔今天的发言整体中性偏鸽，我看到的重点如下：

鲍威尔表示，“他们认为重新考虑‘就业不足’的措辞是合适的，这样美联储就不会将低失业率本身视为通胀风险的信号”；

美联储可能会对一项策略进行大规模修改，该策略在一开始就被视为美联储的重大转变，即愿意承担更多风险，以促进就业市场走强，并愿意在经历了一段时间的疲软后容忍更高的通胀。

这表明，未来即使通胀仍在高位，只要就业出问题，美联储就有理由降息。

发言后， $SPX 的反应比 $BTC 好；

结合今天出炉的PPI低于预期，这个月底的PCE可以让美联储满意；

如果6月的PCE保持目前水平，那美联储7月份降息的概率就很大了；

高盛预测的12月降息，估计又要成为反指了。

鲍威尔承受了特朗普完点攻击之后，也得走下台阶，休整休整。

Powell Hints at Future Rate Cuts, Lays the Groundwork Subtly

Here are the key takeaways from Powell's remarks today, in my view:

Powell stated, “They believe it is appropriate to reconsider the wording around 'underemployment,' so that the Fed does not treat low unemployment itself as a signal of inflation risk.”

This suggests the Fed may make a major shift in one of its strategies—one that was initially seen as a significant change in policy direction: being willing to take on more risk to support a strong labor market, and tolerating higher inflation for some time following economic weakness.

This implies that even if inflation remains elevated, as long as there are problems in the labor market, the Fed will have a rationale to cut rates.

Today's PPI came in lower than expected, and this month’s upcoming PCE data might give the Fed the reassurance it needs.

If the June PCE data stays at current levels, there's a high chance the Fed will cut rates in July.

Goldman's prediction of a December cut may once again prove to be a contrarian indicator.

After facing heavy criticism from Trump, Powell likely needs a way to step down gradually and take a breather.