2023

5.3

Don’t aim for the absolute bottom, and don’t worry about selling too early. The essence of “selling too early” is the fear of missing out on high-multiple opportunities, but the thing that the primary market fears the least is high-multiple opportunities. Fear of selling too early is often seen in people who are slow to intervene or have delayed information because their choices are limited. However, in the primary market, this worry should not exist. It is much easier to grab ten 10x opportunities than one 100x opportunity, and you might end up losing your principal in the process of chasing the latter.

7.24

This issue has occurred more than once: when unfamiliar with a field, like spot trading, investing tens of thousands of U.S. dollars and seeing a 10-30% profit but hesitating to take profits. In familiar chains in the primary market, one feels that holding 5-10 ETH is already a heavy position, but struggles to hold and fears losses.

8.31

• Sei airdrop and Friend Tech: It’s crucial to create usable technical scripts as quickly as possible. Speed is very important—delaying by just one day could mean losing 10x returns.
• Shia: When judging whether a “shitcoin” is a suitable buy, the expected upside should be considered, rather than simply judging based on the multiplier of the bottom position. Most shitcoins will have lower entry positions than what you bought, and another reason is that when several groups start discussing it, you may feel that the early opportunity has been missed. However, if the G2 founder personally releases the coin, it’s similar to a FUMO-level positive news, and at least can ferment for a few days. If you base your decision on rational judgment instead of these psychological factors, you should be able to achieve 100x profits, as escaping the top is something I am particularly skilled at.

9.3

Never deploy most of your capital in a very short period. It’s acceptable to make a smaller profit, but the risk of significant losses or even liquidation is unacceptable. Also, when dealing with unfamiliar fields, don’t operate based on overly simplistic logic.

9.4

Learn to cut losses quickly and cleanly. Don’t expect to be right every time. If you make a mistake, the faster you cut your losses, the better.

10.12

Today, while playing cards, I realized that I tend to bet based on my chip stack rather than the situation on the table. The problem with this is that my risk tolerance hasn’t increased with the rise in my chip stack. In fact, it has become more fragile.

10.24

• Small opportunities: These might be free or require only time to earn an expected return of 5,000-30,000 USD. There are many of these opportunities, and the market capacity is limited with low risk.
• Medium opportunities: These might require time and research to earn an expected return of 50,000-300,000 USD. The investment is not low, and such opportunities are not frequent each month. The market capacity is large, with risks and rewards.
• Big opportunities: These are often opportunities that are hard to catch even when they’re directly in front of everyone. They usually require a minority approach. One type is moderate investment with extraordinary odds, and the other is higher investment with reasonable odds but a higher probability of success.

2024

1.21

Reviewing two annual-level opportunities: Node Monkey and SatoshiVM. Projects capable of achieving profits in the tens of millions of dollars are annual-level projects, and there have already been two such opportunities within one month.

• The problem with Node Monkey was that I didn’t research it properly beforehand. I only realized after the fact that it was the first original 10k PFP on Bitcoin. Without knowing this information, I still judged that 0.03 BTC was worth participating in, but I didn’t dare to take a large position. In the end, I invested 0.6 BTC and made around 3 BTC in profit. This was a 10x opportunity that could accommodate hundreds of millions of funds.
• SAVM was even more outrageous. I had been following it for a week, discussed it with three friends a day or two before the launch, but missed the opening due to not noticing the time. This was an opportunity to make tens of millions of profits in a single day.

The mistakes made in both projects were actually similar: due to various reasons, I slacked off in analyzing and focusing on the projects. Although it was just a case of earning less, opportunity cost is still a cost. Such situations should be avoided. For projects that are worth focusing on or ones I believe in, I must ensure thorough research. I believe that such opportunities will continue to appear throughout the year. On average, there could be one 10x opportunity every 1-2 months. Next time, I must seize the chance.

3.28

The key issue this month was not taking profits properly. There are always new projects on the blockchain, so taking profits gradually is always the best approach. I have been good at this in the past, but this month I failed for two reasons:

One, everyone’s profits with Bome were so crazy that, in comparison, money seemed like just numbers. I had profits of several hundred thousand USD but didn’t take profits, which was definitely a mistake due to emotional reasons.

Two, for the other two projects, they had already reached the price points where I should have sold, but after seeing the price rise sharply shortly after my posts, I hesitated and felt embarrassed to sell. However, there’s no need for this mentality. When it’s time to sell, I should just sell.

4.5

Being overly conservative is also a form of risk.

4.14

Study GCR.

Within alt cycles, you should increase risk when the trend first reverses and gradually protect capital as time passes.

People lose because they do the exact opposite: slow early and increasingly greedy with time.

This is a critical piece of advice for both macro and micro considerations: you should increase your risk exposure when the price starts to rise and gradually lower it afterwards, rather than the other way around. Similarly, for shitcoins that you believe in, build a larger position at the beginning and make adjustments later. I often end up buying insufficiently at the bottom and then increasing my position after the price rises, which results in losses.

6.10

Summing up the biggest issues in my recent blockchain operations:

One, I didn’t take large enough positions and was afraid of losses.

Two, I hesitated at the beginning and then added to my position later, which made me passive. I had several single-coin opportunities that could have earned over 100,000 USD, but the total profit ended up being just 70-80,000 USD.

6.18

I’ve been in the crypto space for almost three years now, and recently, I’ve been reflecting on the mistakes I often make in my trading. I have to admit that people are very easily influenced by habitual thinking.

I consider myself lucky because I got into on-chain trading shortly after joining the space. At first, I played with small pool meme coins on BSC, and then moved on to NFTs. The common feature of these two is that most projects have small fund sizes, but there are many of them, so it’s a case of small bets for larger returns, accumulating over time.

However, things have changed. Now there are often million-dollar pools on-chain, and thanks to the AMM mechanism, liquidity is very good. Meanwhile, CEXs, apart from the top exchanges with the most popular altcoins, have poor liquidity. But the mindset I formed early on still subconsciously makes me think that on-chain projects aren’t suitable for large investments; large funds should still be traded on CEXs. This has caused a split in my approach. Even though my expertise and the current hot trends are on-chain, I tend to be overly cautious and end up placing heavier bets on exchanges.

Objectively, with my ability to take on one-tenth of the risk and use one-tenth of the capital, I could achieve the same level of profit on-chain as I would with CEX altcoin trades. The ratio of my bets between the two is clearly upside down. This is a flaw caused by the inertia of my thinking. However, I’m glad that I’ve finally realized this problem and hope to improve soon.

7.28

Neiro made a few classic mistakes. The first one is the narrative of this level. My first instinct was also that there was a great opportunity, but I didn’t dare to invest 600k. I kept overthinking for no reason, possibly because I had to manage the community. I tend to hesitate and second-guess. Plus, I was influenced by the Trump event with a bunch of failed projects, thinking it was outdated news from 20 minutes ago. But actually, there was no need to be overly cautious. A lot of pressure is self-imposed. There’s no need to carry such a heavy burden. At this level, when opportunities are spotted early, I should take the risk. Also, staying sensitive—since it’s 20 minutes old news, why didn’t I think of looking for an earlier PumpFun? These are all operations that should be done subconsciously.

11.3

The on-chain market hit another peak in October. The overall result was good, with profits around 500k to 700k U, but there were still many operations that didn’t go well. I got involved in things I shouldn’t have, sold things I shouldn’t have sold, and so on. To sum up, I think the leaders in new narratives and new tracks should have a good vision, like Goat, Pnut. As for copies like Beta, it’s important to take profits and sell out early. If there’s an unrealized profit of 200k U on a copy, I should sell out firmly.

11.24

In this trade, what is the maximum loss I’m willing to take?

The core of on-chain trading is to take small bets for big returns. Most of the time, I can accept the risk of losing the entire principal, as I’m aiming for 5-10X or even higher returns, unless I’m heavy on high-position buying, which is more like secondary market trading. The core of secondary market trading is to minimize potential losses. A 5-10% stop-loss means the trade is invalid, in exchange for a potential 20-50% return. Before every trade, I should clearly consider how much loss I’m willing to bear.

When I feel like “this is too easy, too smooth,” I should switch most of my positions to stablecoins. Experience shows that this feeling comes when the market has reached its easiest phase and is likely to turn. Additionally, overconfidence can lead to mistakes.

12.1

In the second half of the month, I invested in a few projects, about five or six Meme coins, each around the 100k to 150k U level. It’s not an issue to increase my on-chain position, but the timing was wrong since the on-chain market cooled down. In such a broader environment, liquidity and sentiment couldn’t be sustained. It’s better to take small bets early on rather than chasing high positions.

I don’t think there was a problem with the judgment of these projects themselves, but the details of execution were poor. For example, with large pool projects, if I want to increase positions in the mid-term and don’t feel a strong push, I should pay attention to taking profits or cutting losses promptly, instead of letting them go to zero.

Additionally, Hyperliquid has been a project I’ve been very bullish on for the past year. It gave an opportunity to buy below 3 at the opening, but I ended up buying at 10% higher than the market price due to a market order. My limit order didn’t get filled, and I only bought 150k U out of the 500k U I planned to invest. I sold too early, and in the end, I only made 70k U in profit. My operation for this level of project was poor. I should either have invested more or taken profits at the right time, or if I bought too little, I should have held on for more.

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