Polaris_xbt

BTC Dominance
We are in the boring part now.
The structure looks very similar to 2019, when $BTC led the rally and altcoins lagged behind. During that phase, altcoins found their bottom against BTC.
This time, the process looks even slower. Instead of bottoming in a single cycle, altcoins may need two full cycles to bottom against BTC.
One thing seems fairly clear:
The next bull phase will likely begin with BTC strength and end with $ETH and altcoin outperformance, much like we saw in 2021.

Altcoins vs $BTC
It seems that after 5 years of doom altcoins are finally forming some bottom against BTC.
If we continue ranging here I think the next cycle will be led by $ETH and #Altcoins

$BTC
While we wait for swing short at the top of the range.
Might as well try and scalp the weekend pump

$BTC
Failed to hold the range high.
Personally I will refrain from any longs unless it's local scalps.
Main goal for next week should be to catch some swing short... we have built a nice trendline liquidity which should give us a nice catalyst for deep spike hopefully into our spot buy zone.

$BTC
Range high + 4h fvg retest.
Should not poke back inside the range, just up.

$ETH
ETH / BTC outlook for the current cycle:
🔸Double bottom with the second low coming around the BTC bear market bottom.
🔸Initial impulse at the early stages of bull market.
🔸BTC takes the lead
🔸Bull market climax and a distributive top like in 2021

Altcoins Cycle Outlook
Most are positioned for a fast V-reversal. That expectation is exactly why the market is likely to do the opposite.
When you compare the current altcoin structure with previous cycles, the picture becomes clearer:
🔸The impulsive phase is very likely behind us
🔸One or two minor drops are possible (nothing catastrophic)
The logMACD shows a clear momentum shift. This indicator has been exceptionally accurate in identifying $BTC cycle transitions, so it’s reasonable to expect it to work similarly for altcoins. We are only 5 candles into the new momentum regime. Last cycle

$ETH
Since 2021 ETH has done basically nothing but range.
This is best seen on HTF chart with logMACD. The contraction of volatility is obvious.
Also shows that we should be seeing some bounce soon on ETH or we see the entire curve take a dive...

$BTC
Regarding this swing trade.
I am going to try and be a bit proactive here.... since this is quite the opportunistic situation.
Laying a bunch of spot orders from 59 - 51k.
Purpose: catch the war escalation flush.
The nuke here and any sort of rebound will confirm 3 day bull div on 3d AO... which is our buy setup anyways.

$BTC
Started building a small long here on BTC.
Value area seems to be reclaimed so with such big deviation it makes sense we bounce here and go for upper side of the range.

$ETH
Some nice relative strength from eth past few days.
The key indicator will be the reclaim of 0.032.
Until that happens, I am being pretty conservative with altcoins and eth.

$BTC
Something to ruin otherwise good morning...

#Altcoins
Showing nice resilience at the macro support.
We could se some sizeable rally in the next month.

$HYPE
Good place to add imho

$ARB
Some alts look really nice and have already confirmed low timeframe market structure shift.
Long here with a stop below 0.0886

$BTC and Stablecoin Marketcap
The inflow of stablecoins has stalled just as in 2022.
This was the time when we saw the consolidation before the final drop.
Similar situation now as well and it will likely take awhile for us to form a decent accumulation base here or lower.