MatthewDixon

Whether you use solid candle bodies or candle wicks #LTC has now broken both supports.

It could be that the Triangle started from the low of the A wave.
This would be EITHER wave 4 or wave b counter trend (bear flag) move against the move down for #BTC

#BTC perfect alignment with expectations laid out earlier with a text book e wave before a little higher in a pre terminal thrust out of the Triangle

THIS IS THE SCENARIO IM HOPING FOR,
#BTC may be in the midst of a small Triangle pre terminal consolidation before a terminal leg lower, then higher to target new $BTC ATH

1/ 2011 Cycle
Peak: ~$31
Bottom: ~$2
Drawdown: ~94%
2/ 2013–2015 Cycle
Peak: ~$1,150
Bottom: ~$152
Drawdown: ~87%
3/ 2017–2018 Cycle
Peak: ~$19,800
Bottom: ~$3,200
Drawdown: ~84%
4/ 2021–2022 Cycle
Peak: ~$69,000
Bottom: ~$15,500
Drawdown: ~77%
#BTC Currently bottomed at 52% from ATH
80% correction would take $BTC to around 25K
Though a better technical target might be the 100% extension of the W wave at 52K (59% correction)

1/ 2011 Cycle
Peak: ~$31
Bottom: ~$2
Drawdown: ~94%
2/ 2013–2015 Cycle
Peak: ~$1,150
Bottom: ~$152
Drawdown: ~87%
3/ 2017–2018 Cycle
Peak: ~$19,800
Bottom: ~$3,200
Drawdown: ~84%
4/ 2021–2022 Cycle
Peak: ~$69,000
Bottom: ~$15,500
Drawdown: ~77%
#BTC Currently bottomed at 52% from ATH
80% correction would take $BTC to around 25K

Various reasons for #BTC corrections.
Mt Gox
ICO Bust
FTX Crisis
Meme Burnout/Geopolitical/Macroeconomic???
Whatever the reasons/excuses, Market tops have been correlated with the Halving Cycle and this time was NO DIFFERENT.
We also had Bearish Divergence on every occasion signalling a top.
Also PERFECT #FIB 1.618 extension coincided with the $BTC ATH
The signs are there for all to see.

If this #LTC chart does not show you the importance of CLOSING candle prices on the Monthly chart then im wasting my effort on charting.
But I know a few who benefit from the content so I will continue to try to inform those you are open to learning how to beat the market

Various reasons for #BTC corrections.
Mt Gox
ICO Bust
FTX Crisis
Meme Burnout/Geopolitical/Macroeconomic???
Whatever the reasons/excuses, Market tops have been correlated with the Halving Cycle and this time was NO DIFFERENT.
We also had Bearish Divergence on every occasion signalling a top.
Also PERFECT #FIB 1.618 extension coincided with the $BTC ATH
The signs are there for all to see.

What forces are holding the #Crypto market back?
1/ Lack of strong fresh catalysts or narrative momentum
2/ Slow institutional inflows and regulatory uncertainty
3/ Macro risk-off sentiment and tighter liquidity
4/ Cautious investor psychology and profit taking
All together, these factors create a period of consolidation and muted prices, even while underlying infrastructure and innovation continue.
We have been through this many times before and its just part of the cycle - dont lose hope but wait for that capitulation moment - I dont think we are there yet imo.
Yet im still trading and makin

I am now considering the idea that the #BTC move down will be a little further extended beyond the dashed line to 100% extension of the A wave.
I have closed all $BTC & #Crypto long positions for now in minor profit and will reconsider entering lower.

#BTC looks like a cautious Buy again.
A little impulse higher (A wave) followed by a lower fractal abc down.
$BTC 73,183 is my target but as always I will remain nimble and close if I see any signs of divergence from my objective.

#BTC seeing good follow through with a gradual advance today, towards our target.

Favourable data yesterday gave us some of the #BTC #Crypto lift we were anticipating with hope of continuation to the upside next week

#CPI Matters for #BTC
BTC trades as a liquidity asset, not just a risk asset.
CPI affects Fed expectations causing Rate cuts/delays impacting Dollar, Yields and consequently $BTC
Higher inflation would lead to
Fewer rate cuts
Stronger #USD
Higher bond yields
Risk assets sell
Whereas Lower inflation:
Rate cuts more likely
USD weakens
Yields drop
Risk assets pump
Today Bullish scenario
If CPI comes in:
MoM ≤ 0.2%
YoY below expectations
Then Expect:
#DXY drop
Yields down
BTC spike up 2–5% quickly
Shorts squeezed
Crypto reacts fast often within seconds
However its Bearish If CPI:
MoM ≥ 0.4%
YoY

#Inflation data due for release today may well buoy the market if it remains subdued as expected
#BTC looks to be running a Bull flag and so should react positively and move sharply higher imo