LiquidityWitch

【币界】预测市场这块最近动静挺大的。Polymarket 和 Kalshi 这两个平台在 2025 年表现抢眼，年度交易量合起来接近 400 亿美元。能达到这个量级，说明用户对这类产品的需求确实在增长。更有意思的是，两家平台的估值都已经冲到了数十亿美元级别，这在预测市场赛道还挺罕见的。从市场热度看，预测市场从小众走向主流的趋势越来越明显了。

XRP has been rising steadily recently, with the price reaching $1.86 and a 24-hour increase of 1.7%. However, trading volume has decreased by 37%, totaling only $1.06 billion, reflecting insufficient liquidity during the holiday period. Industry experts believe that the market's capacity for expansion in the coming years, along with the performance of stablecoins and payment applications, will be key growth factors.

A senior trader pointed out that Lighter's token generation event (TGE) will become a key indicator for assessing market risk appetite. The market's reaction to the initial 25% token will reflect participants' true attitudes and influence the overall market trend.

A major holder just sold 27.2 million AR tokens, cashing out approximately $1.2 million, causing the AR price to drop below $0.04 at one point, with a 24-hour decline of 10.2%. This indicates limited market absorption capacity.

Trust Wallet recently updated its browser extension, enhancing the ability to identify stolen wallets and prompting users to migrate to new wallets in a timely manner. The official faces complexities in compensation and needs to filter genuine victims. A total of 2,630 claim requests have been received, with amounts ranging from $1.05 million to $3.5 million. The customer support team is accelerating processing and hiring additional staff.

An execution layer vulnerability event occurred on the Flow chain, resulting in approximately $3.9 million worth of assets being transferred out, but user balances were unaffected. The Flow Foundation quickly released a fix and rolled back the network, clearing unauthorized transfer records, demonstrating an efficient emergency response mechanism.

【Blockchain Rhythm】Last week, despite the arrival of the Christmas holiday, precious metals experienced a series of spectacular market movements. Gold, silver, and platinum continuously hit record highs. Spot gold reached a high of nearly $4,550 per ounce on Friday, continuing the streak of record-breaking levels since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative increase of over 70%. Silver's performance was even more aggressive—surging over 10% in a single day on Friday, breaking through the integer threshold and surpassing $79 per ounce.
What is behind this frenzy in safe-haven assets? The rising risk aversion sentiment and the anticipation of interest rate cuts resonated as the core factors supporting the continued rise of precious metals.
Next, there are three key economic data points to watch: Tuesday at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which usually signals market direction; Wednesday at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be announced, reflecting the health of the labor market; Friday at 22:45, the US December manufacturing PMI

【Crypto World】Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko recently shared some thoughts on 2026 on social media, which are quite interesting. He believes there will be major movements in stablecoins, with a scale breakthrough of over $1 trillion already a certainty. This can be seen from the explosion of DeFi last year—both institutions and retail investors are pouring money into stablecoins.
Additionally, he has a relatively rational attitude towards quantum computing and controlled nuclear fusion, thinking that these two technologies will remain largely unchanged by 2026, with a low short-term probability of real-world implementation. This shows he has a clear understanding of the timeline for technological progress.
What's even more interesting is his strong optimism about AI. He predicts that AI will solve a problem that has puzzled humanity for thousands of years by 2026. Although he didn't specify which problem, it sends a powerful signal—that AI development is beginning to touch on deep-seated issues.
In terms of hard technology, he also mentioned humanoid robots.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that Solana's development has surpassed Ethereum, mainly due to its excellent transaction processing capabilities and rapidly growing tokenized stock value. Despite Ethereum's solid DeFi ecosystem position, Solana's performance in the high-speed blockchain race is worth watching, and future competition will depend on ecosystem development and innovation capabilities.

Tyler Winklevoss believes that Bitcoin will be regarded as "Gold 2.0," reflecting the consensus among seasoned investors. As a digital asset, Bitcoin has advantages in scarcity and store of value, gradually being incorporated into institutional investors' asset allocations, demonstrating its long-term value proposition.

【Crypto World】BTC 4-hour K-line recently showed an interesting rebound pattern. Compared to the low point at 04:00 on December 26, the price has experienced a significant decline but has already recovered from the position at 20:00 on the 25th. The latest K-line pattern is a small bullish candlestick, with the closing price breaking above the opening price, indicating that although the bears are exerting pressure, the bulls are attempting to resist.
However, the trading volume performance is somewhat alarming. The trading volume in the past few hours has been continuously shrinking and has significantly declined compared to earlier. This is a typical volume-price divergence—prices are rising, but the momentum is waning, suggesting that this rebound may not be sustainable.
Technical indicators provide more intuitive signals. The MACD histogram has remained positive, but its width is gradually decreasing, indicating that the bullish momentum is gradually weakening. The KDJ indicator is currently in the neutral zone at 56, with no clear golden cross or death cross signals, indicating a consolidation phase. Overall, the market currently shows no clear direction.

【BitPush】Senior analyst Christopher Aaron recently highlighted a noteworthy signal: the ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to gold has reached its fourth major turning point.
What does this mean? Put simply—gold may experience several years of sustained strength, and investors who cling to traditional industrial stocks like the Dow or S&P 500 might need to prepare for long-term losses.
Data supports this assessment: the DJIA-to-gold ratio measures how many ounces of gold are needed to buy one share of each of the 30 components of the Dow. Historically, there have been three critical inflection points—1930-1933, 1968-1980, 2002-2011. Based on the average cycle pattern, during this cycle, the Dow relative to gold could decline for 9.3 years, with a drop of up to 90.5%.
What’s even more alarming is that Aaron believes this could be the most severe one in history.