Core Point
The classic Bitcoin "four-year cycle," traditionally marked by euphoric bull runs followed by deep bear markets, seems to be losing its predictive power. Today’s market structure, with major institutional holders and ETFs, is vastly different from times when BTC crashed from $20,000 to $3,000 (2018) or $69,000 to $15,000 (2022). A dramatic drop to $15,000 is now considered very unlikely by most experts, unless an extreme black swan event occurs.
Key Data
- BTC price as of Jan 1, 2026: $87,961
- Recent cycle low (2022 bear market): $15,000
- Immediate support zones: $87,240 and $86,0