After a round of upward momentum, the market met resistance and pulled back around 79444 (close to the R2 resistance). In terms of technical indicators, the MACD forms a death cross, the price is under pressure below the short-term moving averages, the KDJ is running at low levels, and the price is positioned on the middle-to-lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, forming a resonant bearish signal. In terms of capital flow, key short-term contract funds continue to see large-scale net outflows, combined with net outflows in spot markets at the 2-8 hour level, indicating that profit-taking or bearish sentiment dominates in the short term. The current price is at the lower end of the consolidation range between key support S1 (77503) and resistance R1 (78997), and the Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow, facing a choice of direction. Overall, in the short term, the bearish forces have a slight advantage, and the price has a need to test support to the downside.

Morning direction: Be cautious about shorting—Entry timing: When the price rebounds to the 78500-78700 range (a resistance zone where MA5, MA10, and the Bollinger middle band converge) and shows signs of weakening upward momentum (such as a candlestick with a relatively long upper shadow), consider entering short positions in batches. If the price directly and effectively breaks below 77800 (recent small-platform support), it can also be used as a signal to chase shorts. Stop-loss setting: Set the stop-loss above 79250 (above the Bollinger upper band and above the pressure level formed by the recent high-point connection line), about 1.3% above the current price, which meets risk control requirements. Target price levels: The first target looks toward support level S1 near 77500, and the second target looks toward support level S2 near 76770. The potential return rate is between 1.0% and 2.0%. Please note that this expected return rate does not reach the ideal 5%-10% target specified in the analysis, so this trading opportunity is a short-term setup for high-risk risk appetite, requiring strict position sizing and stop-loss control. If you want a higher payoff ratio, wait for clearer trend signals.