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The Impact on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
On April 12, 2026, Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Iran's "toll system" legalized in March 2026, created a critical turning point for cryptocurrencies. Iran charges approximately $1 per barrel (up to $2 million for supertankers) for tanker transit and accepts payments in Bitcoin, USDT, yuan, or CIPS. This is the most concrete example of sanctions evasion and de-dollarization at the state level.
What is a Crypto Toll System?
Friendly countries (especially China) receive easy passage, while others undergo security screening + crypto payment. Once payment is confirmed, the Revolutionary Guard issues a code and provides bot escort. Iran already earns hundreds of millions of dollars from Bitcoin mining; now it is transferring this to energy trade. According to Chainalysis and TRM Labs, this is the new standard for billions of dollars worth of sanctions-resistant trade.
Direct Impact on Cryptocurrencies
- $20 million in potential daily crypto payments are increasing BTC and USDT liquidity.
- Stablecoins (USDT) are preferred because they are fast and difficult to track.
- Iran became the first state to officially accept BTC and stablecoins in energy trade. This sets a model for countries like Russia and Venezuela and strengthens the "petrocrypto" axis.
Specific Impacts on Bitcoin
In the short term, geopolitical tensions and the surge in oil prices ($100-116 range) are putting BTC under risk-off pressure. However, in the long term, BTC's "censorship-resistant" nature stands out. Iran's BTC payments support the de-dollarization narrative. Ray Dalio's thesis comes into play here: if the US cannot enforce the blockade, dollar hegemony will be questioned and BTC demand will increase.
Risks and Opportunities
- Volatility: Sudden BTC movements can be expected with the first Chinese tanker transit.
- Regulatory pressure: The US may consider crypto payments a sanctions violation.
- Opportunity: Crypto is becoming an alternative financial infrastructure for the global South and BRICS.
While Trump's move aims to disrupt China's independent oil pipeline, Iran's crypto toll booth is having the opposite effect: making cryptocurrencies a strategic tool for states. This means both short-term risk and long-term legitimacy and increased demand for BTC. The first tanker transit will determine everything.
Gate Square readers should closely follow crypto's new role in this geopolitical chess game. Developments are changing moment by moment.
#CryptoMarketRecovery
#USIranCeasefireTalksFaceSetbacks
#OilEdgesHigher
#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge
$BTC ⚠️Don't Forget to mark Stoploss and manage risk properly.
👉NFA
👉DYOR
#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge
Take action now and post your first plaza message in April!
👉️ https://www.gate.com/post
🗓 Deadline: April 15th
Details: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/50520
On April 12, 2026, following the failure of US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, US President Donald Trump made a critical announcement. He declared that the US Navy would blockade all ships entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized, "We will stop any ship paying tribute to Iran in international waters," and with an "all or nothing" approach, he made it clear that selective passage would not be permitted. Trump also suggested an alternative oil supply channel, saying, "Let China send its ships to us, send them to Venezuela; we have plenty of oil, we'll even sell it cheaper."
While these statements initially appear to be a military move against Iran, a deeper examination reveals that the real target is China's de-dollarization mechanism established through Iranian oil. 80-90% of Iran's oil exports go to China, and this trade is largely conducted in yuan, via CIPS (China's alternative to SWIFT), and outside of the dollar/SWIFT system. Trump's blockade effectively aims to cut off China's cheapest and most independent source of oil – while simultaneously offering Beijing a deal to become dependent on US oil (or Venezuelan sources).
Background 🧐
Islamabad Talks and Failure
The US delegation at the talks, mediated by Pakistan, was led by Vice President JD Vance. In a marathon of over 21 hours, the "final and best offer" was put on the table, but Iran refused to abandon its nuclear program. Vance, upon leaving, stated, "Iran did not accept our terms." Hours later, Trump's statements against the blockade and "illegal tolls" emerged. This directly targets not only Iran but also the new "toll system" in the strait.
Iran's Hormuz "Toll Gate System": The March 2026 Law and Yuan/Crypto Payments
At the end of March 2026, the Iranian Parliament legalized the "Strait of Hormuz Management Plan." The system is simple and effective: Each ship is given a priority score between 1 and 5. "Friendly countries" (primarily China) receive easier passage, while others undergo security screening and pay a fee of approximately $1 per barrel (up to $2 million for a fully loaded supertanker). Payment is made in yuan, Bitcoin, USDT, or CIPS. Once the fee is approved, the Revolutionary Guard issues a transit code, and boats escort the vessels. Empty tankers pass free of charge. Even some allies, including Japan, have been forced to use this system. Potential daily revenue can exceed $20 million.
This system represents the legal and technological pinnacle of Iran's strategic advantage in the strait during wartime (since February 2026). It is also a concrete example of non-dollar trade: China buys 80-90% of Iranian oil with yuan, and this is part of Beijing's challenge to petrodollar hegemony.
🧐 China's Independent Oil Pipeline
Trump's "blockade + alternative offer" combination is a classic geo-economic move. China buys cheap, sanctions-resistant oil from Iran; payments are non-dollar, non-SWIFT. Buying from the US or Venezuela (reserves under Trump's control) means dollars, the banking system, and the potential risk of sanctions. Beijing knows this. Therefore, the issue is not the quantity of oil; it's control and dominance of the monetary system.
Trump announced that in post-Maduro Venezuela, US companies could sell oil at market prices (and to China at a "fair" price). This is part of a strategy to replace Iranian oil. However, China's preference is clear: to remain independent.
Risk Scenarios
👀 If the Blockade Happens or Doesn't Happen
1. If the US stops a Chinese tanker: This will be seen as a trade blockade and a violation of sovereignty. China could increase military/support for Iran, strengthen the yuan system in the strait, bring its navy closer, or sell US bonds. Conclusion: The Iran-China alliance deepens, and the regional crisis transforms into a global energy shock.
2. If the US cannot intervene: The blockade remains on paper. The world (Gulf countries, Europe, Taiwan, Russia) develops the perception that "the US cannot do what it says." Ray Dalio's formula comes into play: If superpowers lose control of critical trade routes, trust erodes, allies distance themselves, and capital flees. Historical examples (Portugal, the Netherlands, the 1956 UK-Suez Canal) confirm this.
The first test is very close: What will the US Navy do when a Chinese oil tanker approaches the Strait of Hormuz? This moment will determine the balance of power in the 21st century.
🧐The Struggle for Control and the Future
Trump's move aims not only to punish Iran but also to break China's rising yuan-oil axis. However, the risks are high. If successful, dollar dominance will be strengthened; if unsuccessful, the US deterrent power will be questioned. The first tanker transit in the coming days and the potential reaction will shape not only energy markets but also the global financial architecture.
⚠️Don't Forget to mark Stoploss and manage risk properly.
👉NFA
👉DYOR
#OilEdgesHigher
#USIranCeasefireTalksFaceSetbacks
#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge
Take action now and post your first plaza message in April!
👉️ https://www.gate.com/post
🗓 Deadline: April 15th
Details: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/50520
$BTC $XAUUSD $XTIUSD