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US President Donald Trump's statement to Fox News that "intense and heated negotiations" are underway with Iran reveals that the diplomatic process remains active ahead of a critical military threshold. This statement, coinciding with the final hours set by the Washington administration for a large-scale infrastructure-targeted attack on Iran, is considered a classic example of crisis diplomacy in international relations literature.

This development is particularly shaped by the struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this critical waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies pass, has direct impacts not only on regional but also on global economic stability.

The Trump administration demanded that Iran reopen the strait by the deadline it set, otherwise it explicitly stated that large-scale targets, including energy facilities, bridges, and electricity infrastructure, would be struck. These threats have led to intense debate regarding the principle of civilian protection under international law, and academic and legal criticisms are increasing, particularly concerning the humanitarian consequences of infrastructure-targeted attacks.

Meanwhile, military activity on the ground and diplomatic contacts are progressing simultaneously. While the US and Israel are carrying out attacks on critical points in Iran, the Iranian side is both signaling regional retaliation and offering conditional solutions through indirect negotiation channels. Mediation efforts by third parties, such as Pakistan, indicate that the crisis has moved to a multilateral diplomatic arena.

Trump's emphasis on ongoing negotiations in his interview with Fox News reflects a "coercive diplomacy" strategy that simultaneously uses hard power and diplomatic tools. This approach aims to increase military pressure while simultaneously forcing the other side to make concessions at the negotiating table. However, Iran's distrust of the US due to past attacks is one of the key factors limiting the effectiveness of this strategy.

These developments are causing high volatility in global markets. The potential for sharp increases in energy prices, particularly the price of oil per barrel, suggests a dramatic rise in the event of a possible military escalation. At the same time, investor behavior is shaped around three possible scenarios: military escalation, diplomatic compromise, or extension of the deadline.

Consequently, Trump's statement about "heated negotiations" indicates that the crisis is not only military but also involves an intense diplomatic bargaining process. However, considering the set deadline and simultaneous military preparations, the current situation creates a high-risk environment of strategic uncertainty and seriously keeps the possibility of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East on the agenda.
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