#FedRateCutPrediction #美联储降息预测

As we move into the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year, the entire market is entering a phase of heightened anticipation and calculated positioning. The upcoming interest rate decision scheduled for December 12 at 3:00 AM (UTC+8) is more than just another macroeconomic event. It is a defining moment that could dictate how global markets, crypto liquidity flows, and risk sentiment evolve heading into early 2026. With an 84% probability priced in for a 25BP rate cut, the market is already preparing itself for what could become a critical shift in monetary policy. Having observed similar macro setups many times in previous cycles, I believe this event carries deeper implications than most traders currently realize.

A rate cut at this stage of the cycle is not merely a reaction to economic slowdown; it is a signal that the Fed is ready to transition from restrictive tightening into a softened, liquidity-friendly environment. Every time historically when the Fed begins its rate-cutting path, it creates a window of opportunity across both traditional and digital markets. However, the reaction is not always instant. From my trading experience, the market typically responds in two phases: an initial emotional move driven by headlines and sentiment, followed by a more calculated trend that begins once investors digest the policy implications.

If the Fed does announce the expected 25BP cut, the immediate reaction may show a mixed tone short bursts of volatility, fast repositioning from institutions, and recalibrated expectations across bonds and equities. But the true rebound potential usually appears in the following sessions when liquidity expectations grow stronger. This is where crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, often benefits. Liquidity injections are historically one of the strongest catalysts for risk-on assets, and although the environment is not fully risk-free yet, a rate cut could provide the psychological shift needed for the next leg of market recovery.

My personal view is that a rebound is likely, but the strength and sustainability of that rebound will depend on the Fed’s guidance. If the Fed signals willingness for further cuts in early 2026, the market reaction could transform from a short-term bounce into the beginning of a broader trend reversal. On the other hand, if they deliver a “soft cut” with cautious language, the recovery may remain controlled and gradual. For traders, the key is not just the rate decision it is the tone, the projections, and the forward guidance.

In my recent positioning, I have focused on maintaining balanced exposure rather than chasing impulsive trades. Leading up to the announcement, market volatility tends to spike, which creates opportunities but also traps. I prefer structured entries near strong support levels and avoid over-leveraging before major macro events. For Bitcoin, I am monitoring support clusters and watching how liquidity behaves on each dip. For Ethereum, layered resistance levels remain important, and a positive Fed outcome may help ETH gradually reclaim its upper ranges. My strategy revolves around waiting for confirmation after the announcement before entering any aggressive positions. Patience is crucial when macro headlines drive sentiment.

Another important factor I am watching is how the dollar index reacts immediately after the decision. A softening dollar typically supports crypto inflows, while a temporary spike can cause momentary pullbacks. From my perspective, the healthier rebound comes when the dollar weakens gradually rather than rapidly. That pattern has historically aligned with more sustainable crypto rallies.

As we move deeper into the event window from December 8 to December 12, the most important thing for traders is to stay focused, avoid panic trades, and let the market reveal its direction once the announcement is out. This meeting may set the tone for the first quarter of 2026, and being positioned with clarity rather than emotion can make all the difference. The potential rate cut represents more than a single move it marks a turning point in policy sentiment that could unlock new opportunities across all markets.