Corn Losing Ground on Export Surge Paradox

Corn futures took another hit on Monday, sliding 0-2 cents in front-month contracts as cash prices dipped to $3.87½, down ¾ cent from the previous session. The NASS Crop Progress report flagged a warning sign: only 96% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested, trailing the 5-year average of 97%—a modest but notable lag.

Here’s the plot twist: while domestic prices softened, corn exports are absolutely ripping. The USDA clocked 1.63 MMT (64.26 mbu) of corn shipments for the week ending November 20—yes, down 20.98% week-over-week, but up a massive 61.78% compared to the same week last year. Mexico grabbed the lion’s share at 624,332 MT, with Japan (284,704 MT) and South Korea (137,136 MT) following close behind.

The real kicker? Marketing year exports for 2025/26 have already hit 17.483 MMT (688.27 mbu) since September 1—that’s a staggering 72% surge versus the prior year. Traders are eyeballing Tuesday’s Export Sales data expecting 0.9-2.5 MMT in delayed corn sales.

On the production front, Brazil’s first corn crop sits at 93% planted in the center-south region as of Thursday, still trailing last year’s 95% pace, which could tighten global supply dynamics.

Price snapshot:

• Dec 25 Corn: $4.23¾ (down 1¾ cents)
• Mar 26 Corn: $4.36¾ (down ¾ cent)
• May 26 Corn: $4.44¼ (down ½ cent)

The divergence between weak domestic prices and red-hot exports is worth watching—typical market confusion before the next catalyst.