Try comparing the current crypto landscape (Nov 2025) with the cheat sheet — here’s Nolan’s analysis and outlook for next year

The crypto market currently shows signs of having just gone through a “top → sell-off → deleveraging” phase and is now sitting in a transition zone between Panic/Capitulation and the early stages of recovery (Disbelief → Hope) — but risks and volatility remain high.

According to Nolan’s team analysis

1) Price condition & recent movements
• Bitcoin dropped from its ATH (~$126k) to the ~$100k region during the early-November flush, then bounced slightly to ~$104k–106k.
This is a significant correction after a strong rally.

2) Market sentiment — Fear & Greed = Fear
• Sentiment indicators (Fear & Greed Index) are in Fear territory (roughly 20–30 depending on source), which is typical of Panic/Capitulation or the period just after it.

3) On-chain / institutional capital — mixed signals
• ETFs & institutional flows:
Early November saw heavy ETF outflows (~$1.15B), meaning part of the institutional money took profit or exited during the correction.
However, other funds/ETFs (e.g., Fidelity / ARK) reported inflows, and major analysts (JPMorgan) suggest deleveraging is “mostly complete,” implying institutional demand may return as panic cools off.

4) On-chain / exchange flows
• BTC on exchanges remains historically low (net outflows remain), signaling accumulation and reduced spot selling pressure.
• But long-term holders also sold portions of their stack during the drop.
Overall: both selling and accumulation coexist, with leveraged liquidity much lower than the peak.

5) Conclusion — mapping this to the “Wall St. Cheat Sheet”
The most fitting stage right now appears to be:

The team’s view:
Recently exited Euphoria → Distribution → Panic/Capitulation, now at the late Capitulation/Anger stage with the first early signs of Recovery, though many participants are still in Disbelief/Depression.
Likely: near the end of the downtrend / early recovery, but not confirmed.
(Mix of Panic + early Accumulation by large investors.)

Team target: $79k–90k bottom range

According to Nolan’s personal analysis

The market has just left Euphoria → Distribution and is currently in Anxiety / Denial.

Anxiety

“Why is the price dropping this hard? Is this just a normal correction?”
→ Traders begin facing margin calls, losing profits but still hoping it’s temporary.

Technical and on-chain evidence for this stage:
• Funding rates: decreasing but not strongly negative → traders still expect a bounce → Denial.
• Exchange flows: inflows noticeable but not panic-level → Anxiety.
• Long liquidations: rising, but not at capitulation spikes → between Anxiety–Denial.
• Narrative: no strong “new narrative” attracting capital → market hasn’t hit full Capitulation.

Nolan’s reasoning:
Many traders/holders from the $120k–125k region still believe it’s just a cooldown, not a real bear trend.
Crypto groups, Telegram channels, and X (Twitter) are full of messages like “It’s fine,” “Rebound soon,” “Just hold.”

Denial

“Good coins always come back. Fed is cutting rates soon; quant funds will push it up.”
→ Investors reject risk, refuse to accept that the uptrend might be finished.
→ Still HODLing, not cutting losses, waiting for a recovery.
• BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, etc. still have many holders who refuse to sell despite 15–25% corrections.
• KOLs and influencers maintain long-term bullish tones → clear Denial.
• Some groups show early mild panic because altcoins lost liquidity sharply.

Nolan’s target: $45k–55k