1. Overview

On the Weekly timeframe, Bitcoin continues to follow the Wyckoff distribution cycle confirmed since early October.
After forming an UTAD at the 126k zone, price sharply declined to 107k, then slightly rebounded around 111k, clearly showing the behavior of Phase D – Sign of Weakness (SOW) on the higher timeframe.

Over the past 7 days, BTC has been trading within a narrow 107k–112k range, with decreasing volume — signaling weak demand absorption and no clear recovery momentum.
This reinforces the view that the market is still transitioning from Phase D → E, and a breakdown below 107k would likely trigger a medium-term markdown phase.

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2. Comparison with Last Week’s Outlook

Last week’s scenario (Oct 13):
• BTC was in the LPSY phase, expected to break 107k → 102k if supply continued to dominate.
• If 114.9k held and 118k was reclaimed, the structure could shift to re-accumulation.

Actual market action (Oct 14–21):
• BTC failed to reclaim the 115k–118k range, as anticipated.
• Throughout the week, price moved between 110k–107k, with no reversal signals.
• Volume kept declining, confirming lateral distribution within Phase D.
• Weekly RSI remained neutral at 51–52, indicating a slight supply imbalance but insufficient signs of a phase reversal.

✅ Summary:
Price continues to follow the primary bearish scenario (Phase D → E) with no reliable recovery signals so far.

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3. Market Structure

The current Wyckoff structure indicates the distribution cycle is 90% complete, awaiting markdown confirmation.
• The Buying Climax (BC) formed around 126k, where large capital started exiting positions.
• The first decline — Automatic Reaction (AR) — brought price down to 117k–118k, marking the lower boundary of the main range.
• The rebound to 125k acted as a Secondary Test (ST), testing supply but failing to make a higher high.
• The Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) — a false breakout above the 126k ATH — absorbed retail demand before heavy distribution took place.
• Since mid-October, BTC has clearly shown a Sign of Weakness (SOW) as price dropped from 118k → 107k with strong selling volume, followed by a minor bounce to 111k, forming the Last Point of Supply (LPSY).
• A confirmed break below 107k would officially transition the market into Phase E – Markdown, with downside targets around 102k–98k.

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4. Volume & Market Sentiment
• Volume: Gradually decreasing during the recent rebound, confirming weakening buy-side pressure while sellers remain dominant.
• Liquidity structure: Major liquidity pools currently lie around 102k and 98k, which may act as price magnets in the upcoming Markdown phase.
• Market psychology: Investors are showing signs of a “hope rally” — expecting recovery without real capital inflows — a typical behavior during LPSY before markdown acceleration.

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5. Scenarios

Scenario 1 – Bearish Continuation
• LPSY completes around 111k.
• BTC breaks below 107k → 102k, entering Phase E – Markdown.
• Medium-term targets: 98k–94k, followed by a potential re-accumulation phase.

Scenario 2 – Reversal Attempt
• BTC holds above 107k and reclaims 118k with a strong weekly bullish candle and rising volume.
• Structure may then shift into a Re-accumulation after Shakeout phase.
• Upside targets: 119k–122k, where the market will decide its next major trend.

#nolan