Altın Saat Düzenlemesi: Kurumlar ABD Fed Faiz Kararı Öngörüsü (III) - Muhtemelen faizi 25 baz puan düşürecek, daha fazla faiz indirimi için kapıyı aralayacak

GoldenOctober2024

2024-09-18 08:19:51

Abstract generation in progress

Ernst & Young: 25 bp interest rate cut is expected with first opposition in 19 meetings. Negative statements about interest rate cut have been removed. The unemployment rate forecast for this year has been raised while the PCE inflation forecast has been lowered. Powell will express support for the labor market. 2. CITIC: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 baz puan in September. While the overall CPI in the United States continues to slow down, the core CPI has Ribaund for the second consecutive month. Interest rate cuts will be on and off with sticky inflation in the US economy. 3. Deutsche Bank: 25 bp interest rate cut is expected. Powell has to show confidence in the outlook and economic forecasts will show a 75 baz puan interest rate cut this year. However, if a 50 baz puan interest rate cut is chosen, it is expected to cut interest rates by 100 baz puan by the end of the year. 4. Danske Bank: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 baz puan, and the pace of QT will not change. The new dot plot will indicate a total of 3x25 bp interest rate cuts this year and 6x25 bp interest rate cuts next year. The risk tends to higher US dollar and short-term bond yields. 5. Nordea: 25 bp interest rate cut is expected, with 25 bp interest rate cuts in November and December, and 100 bp interest rate cut next year. This is significantly different from market expectations and may be disappointing. Powell will open the door to more frequent and larger interest rate cuts. 6. CITIC Securities: The US August CPI is basically in line with expectations, and the cooling trend of rental inflation is not reversing. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate three times each by 25 bp this year. Pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short-term US bonds and defensive US stocks. 7. Deutsche Bank: 25 bp interest rate cut is expected, although the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve’s first significant interest rate cut to be slightly higher than 50%. However, the small first step does not rule out future big moves, and the current risk tends to a weak US dollar.

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