Gasoline prices hard to reverse? WSJ: After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, only 12 ships per day are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

Even if the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement, the situation around the global energy lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz, has not returned to normal. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has told the intermediaries that during the ceasefire it will limit the number of ships allowed to pass each day to about 12, far below the pre-war level of more than 100 ships per day. Real-time data from UKMTO/JMIC, Windward, Kpler, and others also show that the number of ships passing each day is only around 10 to 11. This suggests that oil supply may not stabilize as the outside world expects, and oil prices may remain elevated.

After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, only 10 ships can pass each day

According to a WSJ report, Iran has told the intermediaries that during the ceasefire it will limit the number of ships allowed to pass each day to about 12, far below the pre-war level of more than 100 ships per day. Data show that in early April, there were even days when only 4 ships passed, hitting a new recent low. All ships wishing to transit must coordinate in advance with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), otherwise they may face the risk of attack.

In fact, real-time data from UKMTO/JMIC, Windward, Kpler, and others also show that the number of ships passing each day is only around 10 to 11.

(The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked; Iran demands that transit fees be paid in bitcoin)

More importantly, Iran has started setting up a “toll fee system.” Shipping industry sources say that the passage costs vary by vessel type and can be as high as $2 million, and negotiations must be completed a week in advance. Payment methods include yuan or cryptocurrencies, indicating that Iran is trying to build an alternative settlement mechanism in a sanctions environment and weaken the influence of Western financial systems.

Iran wants to turn the Strait of Hormuz into the Suez Canal

Iran is also designing a tiered system: ships carrying Iranian cargo can pass freely, friendly-country ships must pay fees, and countries that are close to the U.S. or Israel may be directly denied passage. Actual routes have also changed; currently, most of the ships approved to transit travel through waters between Qeshm Island and Larak Island, which are controlled by Iran, further strengthening its control.

This set of measures indicates that Iran is institutionalizing the “facts on the ground” system during wartime. As described in earlier reports, what Iran wants to do is similar to the management system for the Bosporus Strait that Turkey has implemented for a long time, or the Suez Canal’s toll and passage mechanism. Iran’s parliament has approved a new plan for managing the strait, covering passage approval and fee mechanisms, and it has also proposed splitting related revenue with Oman. However, Oman has not agreed to this arrangement yet.

The United States, meanwhile, continues to insist that the shipping lanes should remain open. In ceasefire talks, U.S. President Trump demanded the restoration of freedom of navigation, but Iran has shown no signs of backing down. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said bluntly that charging ships is “illegal and dangerous,” and called on energy-dependent countries in Europe and Asia to take action.

In fact, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz makes it one of the most sensitive hubs in the global energy market. Before the war, the waterway carried about 38% of the world’s seaborne crude oil and 19% of seaborne liquefied natural gas; once passage is restricted, the impact quickly spills over into oil prices, food prices, and even overall inflation. Under international maritime law, charging for natural waterways is not allowed, and the relevant arrangements may violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. At the same time, in the absence of clear safety guarantees, most shipping companies and oil firms still choose to wait and see, leading to actual throughput staying low.

This article Gas prices won’t go back? WSJ: After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, only 12 ships per day are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.