Gate News message, April 8. Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of the event “The Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic volume will return to normal by April 30” has risen to about 57%, up about 43% over the past 24 hours, with current trading volume of about $4.07 million. This market is settled based on IMF PortWatch data: when, on any day within the market cycle, the 7-day moving average number of transiting ships reaches or exceeds 60 vessels, it is determined as “Yes”; otherwise it is “No”. The statistical scope includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers; only data recorded by the IMF PortWatch system is counted. Previously, Iran’s foreign minister said that under Iran’s coordination, the strait can be safely navigated in the next two weeks.
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