Gate News, March 19 — According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a Smart Money address with a 69% win rate and 502 trades on a geopolitical topic invested $12,000 to buy “No” on the question “Will Ukraine agree not to join NATO this year?” Currently, the probability of “Yes” is 24%.
As the Trump administration actively promotes ceasefire negotiations, Washington may leverage military and financial aid to Kyiv as bargaining chips, pressuring Kyiv to accept a peace framework that includes a “pause” on NATO accession. Meanwhile, Russia has consistently made blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership its bottom line and core demand in negotiations.
Currently, Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO has been officially written into the constitution and forms the cornerstone of the current government’s “victory plan.” After paying a heavy toll in war, publicly signing an agreement to abandon NATO membership faces significant public opinion and political resistance within Ukraine. It is very difficult for the current government to make such concessions internally.
Note: Based on its past trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening. Account address: 0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2.
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