From 14:15 to 14:30 (UTC) on March 12, 2026, the price of BTC dropped from 70,660.0 USDT to 69,917.2 USDT, with a 15-minute return of -0.61% and an amplitude of 1.06%. Trading volume increased compared to the previous period, market attention rose, and heightened volatility triggered short-term investors’ alertness.
The main driver of this movement was the concentrated inflow of approximately 2,100 BTC into exchange wallets from on-chain major wallets within a short period, an 18% increase from the previous period. Large holders actively rebalanced their positions while large sell orders appeared in spot and perpetual markets, disrupting the depth balance of buy and sell orders, causing the price to break below short-term support levels. Additionally, the US weekly initial jobless claims released at 13:30 on March 12, 2026, exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index, which suppressed global risk assets, including BTC.
Furthermore, although there was no abnormal net inflow of stablecoins USDT and USDC, and no signs of extreme panic in the market, on-chain derivatives showed no significant large-scale liquidations. However, the US stock indices retraced simultaneously, and gold prices rose, indicating a weakening of external risk appetite, amplifying market reactions. Feedback from social platforms shows investors are more focused on “short-term adjustments” and “major wallet rebalancing.” Market sentiment’s fear and greed index decreased from 62 to 59, indicating a cooling but stable mood without explosive volatility.
In the short term, vigilance is needed regarding the sustainability of major capital rebalancing. Continued selling pressure could lead to further declines. Attention should be paid to subsequent large on-chain transfers, exchange fund flows, and support zone performance, as well as closely monitoring changes in US macroeconomic data and global market linkages. Current market volatility risk is elevated, and short-term users should stay alert and monitor market developments in real-time.
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