“In the crypto world, surviving is the biggest alpha. As long as you’re at the table, you qualify for the feast.” Dragonfly Capital Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi shares his insights from an eight-year crypto cycle perspective on the latest episode of East-West Capital Dialogue, “168X,” analyzing the convergence of AI and cryptocurrencies, bear market survival rules, and why the industrial revolution took 50 years to impact GDP. This is a summary of the highlights from 168X (@168X_Fortune), compiled and edited by Dongqu.
(Previous context: Jane Street accused of “trading at 10 a.m. sharp” to manipulate the crypto market; Bitcoin surged 10% immediately after lawsuit announcement)
(Additional background: A trader relying solely on cyclical analysis, no commissions, no front-running, winning strategies)
Table of Contents
Toggle
- The End of an Era: When Competitors Leave the Table
- We’ve Won Too Much: From Rebels to Rule Makers
- AI Needs Cryptocurrency: Smart Contracts Are Laws for Machines
- The Industrial Revolution Took 50 Years to Affect GDP—Don’t Overestimate AI
- Bear Market Survival Rules: Stay at the Table
- About Dragonfly Capital
- About 168X
Host: Mr. Z (@168MrZ) · Guest: Haseeb Qureshi (@hosseeb)
This legendary investor, who emerged from the Texas poker tables, started professional poker at 16 with $50, and by 19 ranked among the top ten online heads-up no-limit Texas Hold’em players worldwide. He then made a glamorous switch to Silicon Valley, working at Airbnb and Earn.com (acquired by Coinbase), ultimately leading one of the most influential crypto venture funds—Dragonfly Capital, managing over $5 billion.
This summary distills the essence of 168X (@168X_Fortune)—a top-tier dialogue platform connecting Eastern wisdom and Western innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields like AI, blockchain, robotics, space technology, and biotech, exploring how technology, capital, and human wisdom will reshape the future of civilization. Hosted by ex-banker Mr. Z, the show features bilingual deep exchanges with global thought leaders.
The End of an Era: When Competitors Leave the Table
The interview begins with industry-shaking news.
Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, announced his departure from the crypto industry after nearly a decade, shifting focus to emerging fields like AI, robotics, and longevity tech.
For Haseeb, this is more than just news—it’s a personal farewell.
“Interestingly, Kyle was the first VC I met after entering crypto,” he recalls. “We started around the same time in 2017. He’s very different from me; we disagree on almost everything. But he’s one of the most respected competitors I have.”
Haseeb describes Kyle as “an outsider”: no prestigious investment background, no elite school credentials, no backing from top institutions—“just someone who figured things out on his own, building a personal brand and carving a path with highly contrarian thinking.”
“Seeing him leave, I feel a deep sense of melancholy,” Haseeb admits. “It’s like our generation’s youth is ending. We entered this industry in our twenties, when everything felt dreamy and futuristic. Now, the industry has matured.”
We’ve Won Too Much: From Rebels to Rule Makers
“When we entered crypto, we chased a crazy sci-fi future. It wasn’t exactly what we imagined, but it was much more successful than we thought.”
What marks the industry’s “growth”? Haseeb uses a vivid metaphor:
“Back then, stablecoin market cap was just a few billion dollars; now it’s $300 billion. The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly predicts stablecoins will reach $3 trillion in ten years, accounting for 15% of the total money supply.”
We thought we were breaking rules. Now, we are the ones setting them.
“To some extent, we’ve won too much,” he says with mixed feelings. “It’s like a group of climbers struggling up a mountain, only to see tour buses driving straight to the summit. Yes, we won— but seeing victory arrive this way feels bittersweet.”
BlackRock has entered, JP Morgan has issued its own tokenized dollar. The decentralized utopia we once chased has been realized through Wall Street’s full takeover.
The crypto rebels achieved “mass adoption,” but the script and sci-fi visions of the past look different now.
AI Needs Cryptocurrency: Smart Contracts Are Laws for Machines
As AI takes center stage in global capital markets, does the crypto industry’s value narrative become outdated? Haseeb’s answer is different:
“AI is the most important technology of the 21st century, but like many technologies, it requires other infrastructure. AI needs energy, AI needs networks—the vast data fed into large language models comes from the internet. Cryptocurrency is the same.”
He concretizes this intersection with a core scenario: when AI agents start conducting commercial transactions, how will they settle?
“Your agent and my agent don’t use the same fiat currency, aren’t in the same banking system. You’re in Taiwan, I’m in the U.S.—how does my agent do business with yours? The answer is right there from the start: cryptocurrency.”
Haseeb offers a profound insight: the true users of smart contracts aren’t humans, but AI.
“Think about legal contracts: I don’t know which jurisdiction you’re in, I don’t know how to sue your agent. Even if we go to court, it takes months to file, expensive lawyers, years of legal procedures. But AI agents operate much faster than human brains—courts are designed for humans, they can’t keep up.”
“Law is stochastic. How will judges rule? What will juries say? No one knows. But smart contracts always say the same thing—if you understand the code. Predictability—that’s exactly what AI agents need.”
This means the long-promoted crypto narrative of “smart contracts replacing law” has struggled to land in human society, but in AI agent economies, it finds the perfect application scenario.
The Industrial Revolution Took 50 Years to Impact GDP—Don’t Overestimate AI
Facing market enthusiasm about the imminent arrival of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), Haseeb remains calm, typical of top-tier venture capitalists:
“When ChatGPT launched in November 2022, many predicted we were just a few years from AGI. It’s almost four years now. Is it AGI? Maybe. But if it is, it hasn’t reflected in GDP or unemployment rates. Walk the streets of Hong Kong—everything looks normal, no buildings on fire, no robots performing tasks.”
He cites the industrial revolution: “It was the most significant event in human economic history. But from the commercialization of the steam engine to measurable impacts on GDP, it took 50 years. Before that, all those ‘end-of-the-world’ articles were just premature.”
Haseeb emphasizes that no one can predict the timeline precisely. “If ‘imminent’ means within two years? Unlikely. Within ten years? Possible. Within twenty or thirty? Almost certain. It all depends on the timeline.”
“AI will definitely be disruptive. But the question of ‘when’ is entirely different. Don’t draw trend lines too aggressively unless you have strong reasons to believe it’s already happening.”
Bear Market Survival Rules: Stay at the Table
In the final part, Haseeb brings the discussion back to the current market—an emotionally subdued, confidence-shaken crypto bear market.
He admits it’s a tough time: “This is very difficult for those who entered the industry out of excitement and momentum. People treat prices like report cards—when prices fall, they think they did something wrong. But if you stay long enough, you realize that’s not true.”
Haseeb points out that the market event on October 11 last year was a key turning point. That day, U.S. President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese goods on Truth Social, combined with China’s recent rare earth export controls, leading to a sharp sell-off in risk assets. Crypto was hit hardest—Bitcoin plummeted over 30% in 72 hours.
“Many exchanges went down that day. We experienced the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history—over $19 billion in leveraged positions forcibly closed, 1.6 million accounts liquidated,” he recalls. “The scale was nearly 20 times that of the COVID crash in 2020, and far beyond the 2022 FTX collapse.”
But what’s truly confusing, he says, is what happened afterward. “If you compare Bitcoin’s price trend with the Nasdaq and S&P 500—they diverged after October 11. U.S. stocks rebounded, but crypto didn’t follow. There was a fundamental shift in market structure, and we still don’t have a perfect explanation.”
He believes the lack of a clear “why” makes this bear market psychologically tougher.
But he’s not pessimistic about crypto’s future.
“Crypto markets are driven by momentum; they are autocorrelated. When momentum starts in one direction, it tends to continue. Conversely, when upward momentum kicks in, it also sustains.”
He concludes with a poker-table wisdom, the core belief from his eight years in crypto:
“In crypto, the first lesson you learn is ‘survive.’ As long as you’re at the table, you can see what’s coming next. The only way to lose is to be eliminated. If you don’t get eliminated, you have a seat. If you have a seat, you can enjoy the feast.”
