January 29 News, Bitcoin failed to hold the $100,000 level in January and retreated for consolidation, but there was no panic selling. The price gradually stabilized, on-chain and macro data improved in sync, and market expectations for February are shifting, with capital sentiment turning from defensive to cautious bullish.
From the profit-taking structure, the 90-day realized profit and loss ratio has become a key indicator. Historical data shows that only when this ratio breaks above and stabilizes at 5.0 will a strong trend continue. The past two years’ mid-term rebounds have followed this rhythm. If this indicator crosses above again, it indicates that new capital is absorbing selling pressure rather than being suppressed by cash-out behaviors.
On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at the latest meeting. Jerome Powell stated that current rates are in a “neutral zone,” implying no significant tightening in the short term. Sentiment data also signals positivity; Santiment shows the market remains cautious, and extreme pessimism is often a common feature before a rebound.
Institutional movements are another important clue. Over the past three months, spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows have continued, with outflows of $3.48 billion in November 2025 and $1.09 billion in December. However, in January 2026, outflows decreased to $278 million, indicating a significant easing of selling pressure. If February turns into a net inflow, it could provide structural support for prices.
On the technical side, Bitcoin rebounded near the lower boundary of the ascending wedge. Currently, it is around $88,300. If bulls recover $89,200 and stabilize above $90,000, the trend may push toward $98,000, with a further target of $101,000. Historical data shows that the average February gain is about 14.3%, which aligns closely with this target range.
Risks also exist. If the price drops below $87,200, it may retest around $84,700, at which point the bullish pattern could be broken. In the short term, the battle between bulls and bears will continue to revolve around key support levels and institutional capital changes.
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