January 15 News, well-known crypto market investor Arthur Hayes stated that although Bitcoin’s market performance in 2025 significantly lags behind gold and the technology sector, over a longer cycle, Bitcoin still has a high probability of reaching a new all-time high in 2026. He emphasized that the core variable influencing Bitcoin’s future trend is not short-term price fluctuations, but the changing trend of dollar liquidity.
Arthur Hayes pointed out that for Bitcoin to once again outperform gold and the Nasdaq Index, the prerequisite is that dollar liquidity re-enters an expansion cycle. If the supply of dollars cannot continue to increase, risk assets in the market will struggle to gain enough upward momentum, and Bitcoin will naturally be constrained. In his view, dollar liquidity is the key fundamental factor determining Bitcoin’s long-term value.
In his latest analysis, Arthur Hayes mentioned that factors potentially driving a significant rebound in liquidity include the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, which will release more funds into the financial system. Meanwhile, as the overall financial environment gradually loosens, mortgage rates may fall, and commercial banks’ lending behaviors will also change accordingly, with more funds expected to flow into strategic industries supported by the U.S. government.
Additionally, military-related expenditures are also seen as a potential source of liquidity. Arthur Hayes believes that maintaining influence globally requires long-term fiscal and financial support, and related financing will ultimately be completed through the banking system, objectively promoting the expansion of the money supply. This background is bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin in the medium to long term.
Looking back at history, a loose monetary environment often increases investors’ demand for inflation-hedging assets, benefiting Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes also candidly admitted that the phased contraction of dollar liquidity in 2025 is closely correlated with a decline in Bitcoin prices. During the same period, Bitcoin’s annual decline exceeded 14%, while gold prices rose by over 44%.
In comparison, technology stocks performed strongly, becoming the highest-return sector within the S&P 500 Index. Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to policy influences, believing that AI-related sectors in the U.S. and China already possess clear strategic attributes. Even if some traditional indicators are weak, funds continue to flow into this direction.
From a medium to long-term perspective, Arthur Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, expecting a new trend cycle in 2026 amid the re-expansion of dollar liquidity.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Here's what 'cracking' bitcoin in 9 minutes by quantum computers actually means
Google's Quantum AI team said earlier this week that a future quantum computer could derive a bitcoin private key from a public key in roughly nine minutes. The number ricocheted across social media and spooked markets.
But, what does it actually mean in practice?
Let's start with how bitcoin
CoinDesk21m ago
Data: Within two months after a major shock, Bitcoin’s performance has broadly outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index
Gate News message, April 5, according to data, within the two months after major global shock events, Bitcoin generally performed better than gold and the S&P 500 index (a U.S. stock market benchmark index). In specific data, after the Trump administration announced large-scale tariff measures in April 2025, Bitcoin rose 24% in the following 60 days, gold rose 8%, and the S&P 500 rose 4%. In early March 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, Bitcoin also rose 21%, outperforming gold and the S&P 500 index.
GateNews2h ago
Bitcoin shorts risk $2.5 billion liquidation at $72K: Are bears in danger?
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin hitting $72,000 would liquidate $2.5 billion in shorts, potentially crushing bears who are overleveraged.
Iran's war and high oil prices currently pressure BTC, but a ceasefire or ETF inflows could spark a rapid recovery.
$2.5 billion in shorts at risk if BTC
Cointelegraph2h ago
Charles Schwab will pilot direct trading services for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the second quarter
Charles Schwab Wealth Management announced that its subsidiary will provide direct trading services for Bitcoin and Ethereum via Schwab Crypto accounts, with plans to test and launch in 2026. A waiting list is now open, but external cryptocurrency deposits or withdrawals are not supported.
GateNews2h ago
Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and stocks after global shocks, Mercado Bitcoin finds
According to a study from Mercado Bitcoin, Bitcoin outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in the aftermath of major global crises, displaying stronger returns during economic shocks. Despite its volatility, it has shown resilience and growth during turbulent times.
CoinDesk8h ago
BTC Consolidates At $67,105 As Renewed Whale Accumulation Sparks Bitcoin Breakout Hopes
Bitcoin (BTC) is attracting serious attention from big investors, according to a market observation disclosed today by analyst Ali Martinez. The analyst shared data on X, revealing that whales have accumulated a total of 10,000 BTC over the past 72 hours, a clear signal that high-net-worth investors
BlockChainReporter8h ago
