In brief
- VanEck developed a Bitcoin bull case that suggests BTC could hit $53.4 million per coin by 2050.
- In that scenario, BTC would become a key part of global and domestic trade settlement.
- The firm’s base case assumes a BTC price of $2.9 million by 2050, and just $130,000 in the bear scenario.
Global asset manager VanEck said this week that the price of Bitcoin could jump as high as $53.4 million by 2050, according to its latest long-term capital market outlook on the asset.
The astronomical price forecast represents the firm’s bull case in the scenario, which maintains a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% for Bitcoin over the next 25 years.
In that forecast, what the firm calls “hyper-Bitcoinization,” the top crypto asset would represent a sizable portion of settled domestic and international trades.
“In a ‘hyper-Bitcoinization’ scenario where Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, the implied value per coin could reach $53.4 million,” the analysis from Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush reads.
“This scenario requires Bitcoin to achieve parity with or surpass gold as a primary global reserve asset,” they added, “constituting nearly 30% of world financial assets.”
Granted, that’s the firm’s bullish forecast. But even VanEck’s base case shows a substantial price rise ahead for Bitcoin: It projects a 15% CAGR, leading to a price of $2.9 million per BTC by 2050.
In this scenario, VanEck forecasts that BTC will account for 5-10% of global trade, and 5% of domestic swaps. Additionally, it believes that central banks will have begun allocating up to 2.5% of their balance sheet to Bitcoin as a hedge.
With Bitcoin changing hands at $90,319 on Friday, it sits nearly 3,100% off the firm’s 2050 base case. To reach the firm’s bull case, Bitcoin will need to jump more than 59,000%.
However, it is only 43% below the firm’s 2050 bear case, which assumes just a 2% CAGR and a projection of BTC at $130,000—just 3% above its most recent all-time high of $126,080, set last October.
The firm’s 2050 valuations have shifted slightly higher since they were unveiled in 2024. At that time, it provided a bull case of $52.3 million per BTC, while its base and bear cases remained relatively unchanged.
BTC is down 0.3% in the last 24 hours and sits about 28% off its October all-time high.
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