As early-year optimism gradually wanes, a clear risk-off signal has emerged in the US spot Bitcoin ETF market. Data shows that the US Bitcoin ETF has experienced net outflows for three consecutive trading days, reflecting that institutional investors are reassessing their risk exposure, and short-term market sentiment has significantly cooled.
According to Farside data, on Thursday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw approximately $205.5 million in net outflows in a single day, with total outflows over the past three days reaching $934.8 million. Since the beginning of the year, only two trading days have recorded net inflows. Nevertheless, on a 7-day basis, the ETF still maintained a net inflow of about $240.7 million, indicating that medium-term demand has not fully reversed.
ETF capital flows are usually considered a lagging indicator, but at this stage, their signaling of market sentiment is becoming more significant. Bitcoin’s gains since the start of the year have notably slowed, retreating from an 8% increase the previous day to around 4%. Data shows that Bitcoin has been fluctuating near $91,100 in the past 24 hours, after briefly falling below the $90,000 level, with limited rebound momentum.
Sean Dawson, Head of Research at on-chain options platform Derive, pointed out that ETF outflows are more like strategic position adjustments rather than a sudden disappearance of demand. He believes that the reallocation of capital at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin repeatedly facing resistance at the $92,000 key level, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty are important backgrounds for the short-term capital withdrawal.
From an on-chain structural perspective, supply pressure also limits Bitcoin’s further upward movement. Glassnode analysis shows that Bitcoin previously surged above $94,000, entering a dense cost zone for major buyers, roughly between $92,100 and $117,400. As these investors gain “break-even” opportunities, the market faces ongoing profit and loss balancing selling pressure, which requires time to absorb the new supply in the short term.
The options market also signals increased caution. The short-term call option skew has turned negative again, indicating that traders’ expectations for a continuation of the “early January trend” are cooling. The market is more inclined to believe that Bitcoin will oscillate within a high range.
From the perspective of ETF flows, outflows do not necessarily indicate a trend reversal, but they clearly show that institutional risk appetite is cooling. For Bitcoin to restart its upward trend, it will need time to digest the dual pressures from ETFs and on-chain factors, and to regain stability in key cost zones, thereby accumulating momentum for the next phase of the market.
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