Since December, Ethereum’s price has been under continuous pressure, with a total decline of nearly 14%, and market sentiment has noticeably weakened. As of now, ETH has fallen from the monthly high of approximately $3,432 to below $3,000, retreating nearly 40% from its all-time high of $4,946. While prices weaken, there has been a large-scale outflow of funds from Ethereum spot ETFs, becoming a significant factor suppressing the market.
Data shows that in December, nine Ethereum spot ETFs in the US experienced a net outflow of about $545 million, continuing the outflow trend of $1.42 billion in November. Institutional fund withdrawals have weakened market confidence and further impacted retail investor sentiment. In the derivatives market, Ethereum futures open interest remains between $35 billion and $40 billion, significantly below the year’s high, reflecting a decline in speculative participation.
The macro environment is also unfavorable. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance has increased risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from high-risk assets. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has remained around 20 for a long time, indicating extreme panic in the market, making it difficult to form an effective short-term rebound.
From a technical perspective, the Ethereum daily chart is forming a typical bearish descending triangle, which is often seen as a continuation signal for a downtrend. Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross,” further reinforcing the bearish trend. The price is trading below major moving averages, indicating that buying momentum remains insufficient.
If this pattern is confirmed, Ethereum’s price may test the support at around $2,622; conversely, if ETH effectively breaks through the key resistance at $3,100, the bearish structure will be broken, and a short-term rebound could be possible. Currently, ETF fund flows and technical patterns remain the core variables in judging Ethereum’s future movement.
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