XRP Price Prediction 2026: ETF Zero Outflow Record and On-Chain Selling Pressure Confrontation, How Will XRP Break Through and Return to $3?

As 2025 comes to a close, XRP prices face pressure at year-end and are currently hovering around $1.87, with a total decline of 9.7% for the year. However, beneath the market’s apparent weakness, there are underlying currents: on one hand, institutional funds show remarkable confidence, with cumulative inflows reaching $3.3 billion this year, and their spot ETF products have set a record for “zero net outflow days” since launch; on the other hand, long-term holders shifted towards continuous selling in the fourth quarter, planting risks for the 2026 trend. Market analysis suggests that XRP may continue to fluctuate in early 2026, awaiting clear macro catalysts to establish direction. A true bullish signal requires the price to stay steadily above $3.00.

Institutional “Anchor”: The Logic Behind $3.3 Billion Inflows Against the Market

In the second half of 2025, when retail investor interest was sparse and market sentiment was generally cautious, XRP gained overwhelming support in a key area: institutional capital. According to authoritative data from CoinShares, in just the last week of December (up to December 27), XRP saw $70 million in fund inflows, bringing its total for December to an astonishing $424 million. Extending the timeline to the full year, XRP attracted a net institutional inflow of $3.3 billion in 2025, a particularly notable figure amid market turbulence and unresolved legal uncertainties.

Compared to mainstream assets, the contrast is striking. During the same period, Bitcoin experienced $25 million in outflows, while Ethereum saw outflows of $241 million. XRP remains one of the few core assets that continued to attract institutional investment despite headwinds, which is no coincidence. Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto application NoOnes, told BeInCrypto exclusively that this reflects a structured, long-term strategic approach by institutional investors. “The increased holdings in early December are part of a strategic layout by market participants to capture ETF momentum,” Youssef explained. “Just like the listing cycles of early Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, institutional investors tend to accumulate assets before prices start reflecting these positive developments.”

Institutional favor not only provides real capital support but also changes XRP’s asset attributes. Youssef further noted that with increased institutional participation, XRP is increasingly viewed as an asset with high beta but clear value proposition, further advancing its mainstream adoption. Despite current weak prices, traders see the current levels as a good entry point to capture future growth potential, believing XRP’s price will eventually catch up with the momentum generated by ETFs.

Looking at recent key fund flow data, XRP’s performance is particularly unique. In the week ending December 27, XRP saw $70 million in inflows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced outflows of $25 million and $241 million, respectively. This stark contrast highlights that, amid recent market volatility, XRP has become a unique safe haven for institutional funds, with confidence appearing unusually solid.

The “Unbeatable” ETF and the Waning Confidence of Holders

The highlight of the institutional narrative is XRP spot ETF’s astonishing performance. Since its approval earlier this year, the XRP ETF has set a remarkable record: not a single day of net fund outflow. Out of all trading days, only one day saw zero net inflow at close; all other days recorded net inflows. This near-constant demand is rare in financial product history and strongly demonstrates that compliant institutional channels have a solid and sustained demand for XRP.

However, in stark contrast to this enthusiasm, long-term holders are showing signs of loosening. This group, typically addresses holding XRP for over a year, has historically acted as a “stabilizer” during market declines, with their steadfast holdings reducing supply-side selling pressure. But in 2025, especially in the fourth quarter, their behavior has fundamentally shifted: selling activity has become dominant.

This shift is highly significant. It indicates that the most confident mid-term investors in XRP are losing faith. Long-term holders are moving from “accumulation” to “distribution,” often a precursor to prolonged price consolidation or deeper corrections. If this trend continues into 2026, even with institutional support, XRP could face ongoing internal supply-side pressure. The market is playing a delicate game between “smart money” and “steadfast hands.”

Outlook for 2026: Volatile Start, Waiting for Macro Catalysts

At the crossroads of 2025, XRP’s technical outlook appears quite strained. The price experienced a 38% deep retracement in Q4 and is currently barely holding around $1.87. No positive rebound momentum emerged in December, further reinforcing bearish sentiment at year-end. What might 2026 look like?

Ray Youssef predicts that 2026 could see a standalone trend, but the initial phase may be dull. Without decisive macro catalysts, XRP might continue to oscillate between $2.00 and $2.50 throughout January and the first quarter. “The market has yet to recover from ongoing volatility and geopolitical tensions impacting trade relations,” Youssef emphasized. “Multiple deleveraging and risk-avoidance events mean traders are reluctant to increase directional risk exposure until the adverse conditions fully subside.”

From a technical analysis perspective, the primary goal is to recover recent losses. To re-establish a bullish structure and challenge the $3.66 all-time high, the price must stay consistently and firmly above $3.00. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies and demand remains weak, XRP could decline further. The key support level is at $1.79; a decisive break below this could send the price toward $1.50, which would break the current neutral-bullish thesis and reinforce a bearish dominance.

Seasonal patterns also offer a warning. Historical data over the past 12 years shows XRP’s average January gain is 3%, but the median return is a decline of 7.8%, indicating January performance often underperforms expectations. Youssef pointed out that due to structural market weakness, liquidity contraction, and panic selling triggered by AI bubble fears spreading across the digital asset market, XRP was under pressure in December 2025, and the crypto market experienced one of its worst Q4 in nearly seven years. Therefore, unless market sentiment and investor behavior change significantly, XRP may continue to struggle in early 2026.

2026 XRP Price Scenario Analysis

Based on current market structure and expert opinions, XRP in 2026 could follow several paths:

Bullish Scenario ( Probability: 30%):

• Trigger Conditions: Clear macro positive signals (e.g., global liquidity easing), Ripple achieves breakthrough in key business partnerships or legal developments.
• Price Path: Successfully break above and stabilize at $2.50 resistance, attracting trend-following capital, and challenge the $3.00 psychological level. Continued breakout could target the $3.66 all-time high.
• Conditions Needed: Strong institutional inflows, long-term holders cease selling or even increase holdings.

Sideways Consolidation Scenario ( Probability: 50%):

• Trigger Conditions: Uncertain macro environment, lack of a single catalyst, ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
• Price Path: Range-bound oscillation between $1.80 and $2.50, likely in the first quarter, awaiting new fundamental variables to break the deadlock.
• Conditions Needed: Dynamic hedging between institutional inflows and long-term holder selling, declining market volume.

Bearish Scenario ( Probability: 20%):

• Trigger Conditions: Global risk assets worsen again, crypto market faces stricter regulation or black swan events.
• Price Path: Effective breakdown of $1.79 support, testing $1.50 or lower. This would confirm a continuation of the downtrend.
• Conditions Needed: Institutional inflows cannot offset strong selling pressure, accelerated long-term holder selling, spreading panic.

Ripple and XRP: Indispensable Background and Future Connection

In analyzing price trends, we cannot ignore Ripple, the parent company behind XRP. Although XRP exists as an open-source digital asset on the XRP Ledger independently, Ripple’s business activities, legal progress, and collaborations with global financial institutions are always key variables influencing market sentiment and practical value expectations for XRP.

Simply put, Ripple is a fintech company focused on cross-border payments and enterprise blockchain solutions. Its core product, RippleNet, uses XRP as a “bridge asset” to enable fast, low-cost international remittances. Therefore, any news about Ripple forming new partnerships with banks or payment providers can be interpreted by the market as positive for XRP’s practical demand and long-term value. Conversely, any setbacks in its prolonged legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have previously triggered sharp market swings.

Looking ahead to 2026, Ripple’s developments will remain a critical part of XRP narratives. Key points to watch include:

1. Expansion of commercial adoption: Whether RippleNet can attract more mainstream financial institutions and whether its XRP-based liquidity solution (ODL) achieves scale.
2. Regulatory clarity: Although some favorable rulings have been achieved, final regulatory clarity will be essential to eliminate institutional concerns and promote broader adoption.
3. Ecosystem development: The technological growth and ecosystem expansion of the XRP Ledger in DeFi, NFTs, and other fields will help reduce XRP’s dependence on Ripple’s narrative, building a more robust value foundation.

For investors, understanding this “interdependent” relationship between XRP and Ripple is crucial. In 2026, XRP’s price will be determined not only by market capital flows but also by the combined effects of underlying technology utility, institutional adoption progress, and macroeconomic environment. Ultimately, the divergence between “smart money” and “steadfast hands” will be resolved by tangible “use value” creation.