Cantor Fitzgerald 警告寒冬來襲！機構卻砸 500 億押注 RWA

Cantor Fitzgerald warns that Bitcoin has entered a long-term downturn, surpassing its high point for 85 days, and may test the MicroStrategy cost basis at $75,000. However, institutional adoption is surging against the trend, with RWA tokenized assets increasing in value to $18.5 billion this year, projected to break $50 billion by 2026. DEX expansion and the CLARITY bill provide regulatory clarity, and the market is now dominated by institutions rather than retail investors, marking an institutionalization phase for the crypto industry.

MicroStrategy Cost Basis Becomes a Market Dividing Line

A report from Cantor Fitzgerald reveals a critical insight: Bitcoin’s current price is only about 17% above MicroStrategy’s average cost basis. If Bitcoin falls below $75,000, this giant holding 670,000 BTC will face paper losses, potentially igniting market panic. While Cantor believes MicroStrategy is unlikely to sell, the existence of this psychological threshold is itself a Damocles sword.

This fragility reflects a structural shift in the current market. The past crypto winter was dominated by retail panic selling and leverage liquidations, but the potential downturn in 2026 will be driven by the paper gains and losses of institutional holdings. The cost basis of Bitcoin holdings by companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla has become a key support or trigger point for market crashes. Once large institutions incur losses, even without selling, their financing capacity and stock prices will be affected, transmitting impact throughout the crypto ecosystem.

However, Cantor emphasizes that this winter is “less chaotic and more systemic.” Unlike the ICO bubble burst in 2018 or the FTX collapse in 2022, the current market lacks catalysts for structural breakdown. Institutional participants possess stronger risk management and longer holding cycles; they are unlikely to panic and exit due to short-term price fluctuations. The characteristics of this “institutional winter” are: prices remain subdued but ecosystem development continues, token performance is weak but on-chain activity grows, market sentiment is pessimistic but infrastructure upgrades persist.

From a historical cycle perspective, Bitcoin follows roughly four-year bull-bear cycles. The current point is indeed approaching a retracement phase after a cycle top. But Cantor’s core argument is: this retracement will not destroy the industry; instead, it will accelerate the淘汰 of speculative projects, allowing truly practical applications to emerge. Retail investors may exit during the winter, but institutions are building positions at lower costs and laying out infrastructure during this window.

The Paradox of Explosive Growth in RWA Tokenization

The most shocking data in Cantor Fitzgerald’s report is that the on-chain tokenized value of RWA has tripled this year, soaring from about $6 billion to $18.5 billion, covering traditional assets like credit products, U.S. Treasuries, and stocks. More aggressive forecasts suggest this number could surpass $50 billion by 2026, representing a 170% increase. This rapid growth occurs amid downward pressure on Bitcoin prices, creating a paradox of “token prices widening the gap with actual operational value.”

The drivers of RWA tokenization are threefold. First, traditional financial institutions are experimenting with on-chain settlement to reduce costs and improve efficiency. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and Franklin Templeton’s on-chain money market fund are emblematic examples. These institutions are indifferent to Bitcoin’s price swings; they focus on blockchain’s potential to transform existing financial processes.

Second, increased regulatory clarity has eliminated compliance barriers. The CLARITY bill defines when digital assets are considered securities or commodities, and after reaching a decentralization threshold, oversight shifts to the CFTC. This clarity allows banks and asset managers to participate legally in RWA tokenization without fear of SEC repercussions. Cantor believes this legislation reduces “title risk,” paving the way for large-scale institutional entry.

Third, RWA tokenization has intrinsic value logic independent of the crypto market. A tokenized U.S. Treasury product’s yield depends on Federal Reserve policy rather than Bitcoin’s price. This means that even in a crypto winter, RWA products can attract conservative capital seeking stable returns. This “decoupling” is precisely what institutional investors value and is the fundamental reason RWA can grow countercyclically during bear markets.

Three On-Chain Signals of Transformation

DEX Market Share Continues to Erode CEX: Decentralized exchanges operate without intermediaries, steadily capturing market share from centralized platforms. Cantor notes that although trading volume may decline with Bitcoin’s price by 2026, DEXs, especially perpetual futures, will continue to grow due to improved infrastructure and user experience.

Predicted Market Explosion to $5.9 Billion: On-chain prediction markets, particularly in sports betting, have seen transaction volumes surge to $5.9 billion, accounting for over 50% of DraftKings’ Q3 total. Companies like Robinhood and the largest compliant U.S. crypto exchanges have entered the space, offering order-book-based alternatives that are more transparent than traditional sports betting.

Institutional Domination Replaces Retail-Driven Markets: Cantor explicitly states that the market is now shaped by institutional participants rather than retail traders. This shift is reflected in capital flows, product design, and regulatory demands, with retail “FOMO” no longer being the primary price driver.

2026 Is Not the End, But the Beginning

Cantor Fitzgerald’s core message is: the next year may not bring a major price breakthrough for cryptocurrencies, but the foundation for deeper infrastructure and institutional adoption is being solidified. This “price doldrums but ecosystem prosperity” divergence is a necessary phase for crypto to mature.

For retail investors, this means traditional “hype trading” strategies may no longer work. The era of chasing the next 100x coin is passing. Understanding the value logic of RWA, DEX, prediction markets, and other practical applications becomes more important. For institutions, winter is a golden window to build positions at lower costs and test new products. History shows that projects built during bear markets often dominate in the next bull run.