Polkadot Price Analysis: Can DOT Break Through $2? Key Conditions and Risks Fully Explained

Since March 2025, the Polkadot (DOT) price has been in a long-term downtrend overall, but amid recent increased market volatility, DOT still recorded a roughly 4.4% rebound over the past week. This performance, in an environment where Bitcoin prices are fluctuating and market sentiment remains cautious, represents a relatively stable short-term correction.

From a multi-timeframe analysis, DOT’s medium- to long-term trend remains bearish. The weekly chart shows that the downward structure since September last year is still ongoing, with multiple retests after breaks below support. Volume-related indicators reflect persistent selling pressure, and momentum indicators have not shown clear signs of trend reversal. The historical supply zone around $2.5 is still considered an important medium-term potential sell area.

However, on the 4-hour chart, the short-term structure has already changed. The price has successively broken through previous lows at $1.75 and $1.85, forming a bullish structural breakout, indicating that short-term funds are actively entering. The flow of funds and momentum indicators are strengthening in sync, providing technical conditions for DOT to continue upward. From this cycle, the psychological threshold of $2 may be tested, and if market sentiment cooperates, it could even reach the weekly supply zone between $2.1 and $2.5.

It is important to note that systemic risks facing the bulls still exist. Bitcoin remains under pressure near $90,000, causing the overall market to lack clear signals of risk appetite recovery. In this context, altcoins often lack sustainability in their rebounds and are prone to profit-taking at key resistance levels. A short-term bullish outlook does not mean the long-term trend has reversed; medium- and long-term investors should maintain rational expectations for the rebound.

From a trading perspective, current DOT is more suitable for rebound trading rather than trend reversal positioning. Technical models show that the $2.0 to $2.1 region has dense short liquidation and liquidity concentration, making it more likely for the price to approach this zone, which is suitable for short-term profit-taking. Once the price falls below $1.82, the short-term bullish structure will be broken, and the rebound logic will become invalid.

Overall, a breakout above $2 for Polkadot is not impossible, but it depends on the continuation of short-term momentum and the overall market sentiment not worsening further. Until the long-term trend reverses, risk control remains the core focus for participating in DOT trading.