Dogecoin Price Prediction: On-chain Data Suggests Reduced Selling Pressure, DOGE Price May Face a Directional Choice

Recently, Dogecoin (DOGE) prices have been under continuous pressure. Data shows that DOGE has fallen about 2% in the past 24 hours, with a cumulative decline of over 12% in the past month. Although the overall price structure still leans towards a bearish trend, the downward momentum is slowing, and the market is approaching a critical decision point. In the coming trading days, it will be crucial to see whether Dogecoin breaks below key support levels or stabilizes near the current position.

From a technical perspective, Dogecoin is currently operating along the lower boundary of a descending channel and has formed a typical bearish flag pattern. If support in the $0.124–$0.120 range fails, the price may further decline. However, on-chain data indicates that the so-called “breakdown area” has not yet been fully confirmed, and short-term selling pressure is undergoing structural changes.

According to the HODL Waves on-chain indicator, the proportion of short-term traders holding positions for 1 week to 1 month has significantly decreased. This group once controlled about 7.73% of the circulating supply of Dogecoin at the end of November, but by late December, it had dropped to about 2.76%. This suggests that a large amount of short-term funds have exited early, helping to alleviate panic selling pressure near support levels.

Meanwhile, long-term holders are beginning to show mild signs of accumulation. Addresses with holding periods of 1 to 2 years have seen their supply share increase from approximately 21.84% to 22.34%. Although the increase is modest, it is generally seen as an early signal of weakened downside risk.

From on-chain activity, the total number of tokens spent across the network has decreased significantly, with DOGE transfer volume dropping from about 250 million coins to less than 100 million, a decline of over 60%. Historical experience indicates that a rapid cooling of on-chain activity often signals the completion of short-term selling pressure and creates conditions for a price rebound.

Regarding key price levels, $0.120 remains the core support for Dogecoin’s price movement. If the daily candle breaks below this level, DOGE may decline to the $0.112 area. Conversely, if the price reclaims above $0.133, it indicates a clear easing of selling pressure; a further breakthrough of $0.138 could confirm that bulls are regaining control, and the current decline is more likely just a temporary correction.

(Source: TradingView)

Overall, Dogecoin is at a crucial crossroads. While technical risks still exist, on-chain data shows decreasing speculative supply, increased participation by long-term investors, and declining trading activity—all factors that could support stabilization or even a rebound in price. Whether a true trend reversal occurs will depend on the success or failure of holding key support levels.