Analyst warns: Bitcoin may enter a "de-cooling" phase, with uncertain trends in Q1 2026

Recently, the decline in Bitcoin prices has prompted the market to reassess its medium- and long-term outlook. As early as mid-November, Galaxy Trading analyst Beimnet Abebe pointed out that although Bitcoin temporarily held above the 50-week moving average, there remains a risk of further decline, with target ranges including the 100-week and even the 200-week moving averages. Evidence has shown that the predictions based on the 50-week and 100-week moving averages have been realized successively. Currently, the 100-week moving average remains stable at approximately $85,500, which closely overlaps with the previous key demand zone of $84,000 to $85,000, serving as an important support level.

Abebe stated that if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, he would be “willing to buy,” indicating that some institutional analysts remain relatively optimistic about its medium- and long-term value. However, market sentiment is not entirely consistent. Some analysts believe that cryptocurrencies are gradually losing their early “disruptive” and “cool” attributes. Social media users point out that the core issue lies in whether Bitcoin and crypto assets have enough real-world applications to compensate for the demand gap caused by the continuous decline in retail participation.

Data shows that discussions and engagement around cryptocurrencies on social media have significantly decreased. Although institutional funds, Bitcoin spot ETFs, and traditional financial participants have increased the legitimacy and acceptance of the asset, this has also led the market to gradually diverge from the early narrative of decentralization and permissionless innovation. This structural change may be reshaping Bitcoin’s long-term investment logic.

In terms of volatility, Anthony Pompliano, founder of Professional Capital Management, noted that Bitcoin’s current price volatility has likely decreased by about half compared to previous cycles. Since the recent sharp correction, funds flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs have mostly been outflows, but the overall decline is only about 33%, far less than the 70% to 80% deep adjustments common in historical bear markets. This is mainly believed to be closely related to the increased proportion of institutional investors.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. mentioned that the real MVRV indicator has shown restraint in this cycle, even when reaching new highs, it has not broken through key thresholds, indicating a maturing market. Overall, Bitcoin may be entering a phase of low volatility, low narrative, and high rationality, which both limits extreme declines and may suppress bubble-like surges.